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  • The Week Evening Review
    Prediction markets under scrutiny, ‘alpha male’ Nick Adams, and private credit stress

     
    TODAY’S BIG QUESTION

    Are war insiders profiting from prediction markets?

    Prediction markets like Polymarket let users bet on future events. At least one trader has been remarkably prescient about U.S. military operations, feeding fears that these markets are being manipulated by insiders with closely held knowledge of government plans.

    The anonymous trader has made “dozens of well-timed” Polymarket bets on Iran that earned them nearly $1 million since 2024, said CNN. They won 93% of their bets “even though the events they predicted were unannounced military operations.” Many of the bets “came hours before U.S. or Israeli military activity” against Iran. That pattern is “strong signaling of insider activity,” said Nick Vaiman, the CEO of the analytics firm Bubblemaps. Another trader made $400,000 earlier this year predicting the January U.S. strike that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

    Other markets are also seeing suspicious activity. A “spike” in oil futures trading totaling $580 million occurred right before President Donald Trump’s Monday announcement that he was seeking negotiations with Iran, said CBS News. 

    What did the commentators say?
    Prediction markets are a “national security threat,” said Matt Motta and Robert Ralston at Responsible Statecraft. Insider trading creates the possibility that government officials might prioritize personal gain over national security. Officials with power to influence international affairs could “alter their actions in order to make a profit.” Prediction markets may also “become sources of intelligence for adversaries” by signaling when military action is about to happen. 

    Profiting from insider information about national security is “treason,” said Paul Krugman at Substack. There’s a “blurry line” between using official secrets to make “lucrative trades” and selling those secrets to the “highest bidder.”

    What next?
    There are steps being taken to tighten the guardrails. Kalshi recently banned two traders for insider trading, the “first time the company had publicly revealed investigations” into the issue on its platform, said MarketWatch. Polymarket, meanwhile, has updated its rules to ban trading when a user possesses “stolen confidential information” or has the “ability to influence the outcome of the event.” Republicans and Democrats in Congress are now “pressing” for legislation to “crack down on policymakers placing wagers” on the markets, said The New York Times. 

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘Any stress is in no way related to pressure from the White House, and nothing will get in the way of me doing my job.’ 

    Acting head of ICE Todd Lyons in response to suffering stress-related incidents, including at least two hospitalizations in the last seven months. Sources attribute these to immigration policy architect Stephen Miller “yelling” at Lyons “during morning phone calls,” said Politico. Lyons “usually responds by apologizing.”

     
     
    IN THE SPOTLIGHT

    Nick Adams: Trump’s new ‘alpha male’ envoy 

    A self-proclaimed alpha male influencer, Nick Adams is President Donald Trump’s new special presidential envoy for American tourism, exceptionalism and values. The gig came Adams’ way after his nomination to be the U.S. ambassador to Malaysia did not work out. His appointment is the latest example of Trump’s penchant for out-of-the-box personnel decisions. 

    Provocative like Trump
    Adams surged to MAGA prominence as one of the leading lights of the online “manosphere,” said The New York Times. He posted frequently about “stereotypical symbols of masculinity,” advised men to dominate their relationships with women and lamented Hooters’ 2025 bankruptcy filing by volunteering to lead a “presidential task force” to save the chain. 

    He did not backtrack after Trump nominated him for the Malaysia ambassadorship last year. “I am an alpha male. Yes, I eat rare steaks. Yes, I visit Hooters frequently,” he said on social media after the nomination. He would “not be apologizing” for his posts.

    Adams began a career in his native Australia as a “staunch nationalist” who regularly gave speeches about the “dangers of multiculturalism,” said The Washington Post. He resigned from Australian politics in 2012, gained American citizenship in 2021 and moved quickly into Trump’s circle. 

    The provocations provoke. Adams’ “shtick” targets insecure young men with the “false promise that embracing aggressive misogyny is the key to achieving your dreams,” said Amanda Marcotte at Salon. Adams and other manosphere denizens may play the pose as a joke, but his followers are “sincerely misogynistic.”

    Failed nomination
    The ambassadorial nomination “came under fire in Malaysia” because Adams had a history of pro-Israel and anti-Islam posts that did not sit well in the largely Islamic nation, said The Diplomat. Adams is a “right-wing agitator and partisan provocateur,” said former law minister Zaid Ibrahim to the outlet. Malaysians cheered when he was quietly withdrawn from consideration, said The South China Morning Post.

    The newly created tourism position is a “much better fit” for Adams because it does not involve a “grueling Senate confirmation process,” said The Bulwark. The job’s duties include involvement with the forthcoming World Cup and 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. 

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    $6.06 trillion: The total assets held by the U.S. federal government, against total liabilities of $47.78 trillion, based on the Treasury Department’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year. The figures mean the government is effectively insolvent, unable to pay its bills when they are due. 

     
     
    THE EXPLAINER

    Private credit’s very public problem

    Valued at approximately $3 trillion, the private credit industry is showing signs of distress as investors rush to withdraw their money from their funds. Much of this shift is attributed to outside stressors like geopolitical issues and the rise of AI technology. While many are concerned about what this uncertainty means for the economy, others view it as a way for the industry to reset.

    What’s going on?
    Private credit firms “essentially act as banks but without all the regulations that force actual banks to mitigate risk and make their balance sheets public,” said CNN. When these “shadow banks issue loans, the terms are known only to the parties involved.” The uncertainty has led to an “investor exodus and heightened scrutiny of its risky practices,” said The New York Times.

    During the past few weeks, business development companies, which are “funds with stakes in the alternative asset,” have been “gripped by a widespread sell-off,” said the Financial Times. Banks also invest in private credit, which could spell disaster. If private credit “sours,” big banks could be “forced to tighten lending across the board, including to everyday consumers and small businesses,” said CNN, in a similar pattern to what happened in 2008.

    What does this indicate?
    Investors have become concerned about whether the firms have been “valuing their loans appropriately,” especially without the strict regulations banks have, said the Times. A big reason for this is that a “large chunk of private credit loans have been made to software companies,” including those building AI. If AI is as “apocalyptic” as many say, a “lot of companies could end up going out of business and defaulting on loans,” said CNN.

    The withdrawal requests show that the market “cannot be sustained on the promise of higher yields alone,” said the Financial Times. Unfortunately, while there’s hope that private credit will rise from the ashes, the industry is “so interconnected with the economics of everything," said Laks Ganapathi, the CEO and founder of Unicus Research, to Axios. People must be prepared, said CNN, in case “tremors go from rattling your cupboard to swallowing your house.”

     
     

    Good day 💎

    … for shiny discoveries. NASA’s Perseverance rover has found fluorescent precious stones inside pebbles on Mars for the first time, according to New Mexico’s Los Alamos National Laboratory. These “gem grains are made of a substance called corundum,” also known as ruby or sapphire “depending on the traces of metals within it,” said New Scientist.

     
     

    Bad day ⛽

    … for free-flowing gas. Slovenia has become the first EU member state to implement fuel rationing to “tackle disruptions” caused by strikes in Iran, said the BBC. Steep price hikes have led to “fuel tourism” as drivers from neighboring countries take advantage of lower prices in Slovenia. Under the new measures, private motorists will be restricted to 13 gallons per day.

     
     
    Picture of the day

    Fire and ice

    A French winegrower lights anti-frost candles in a vineyard near Chablis, Burgundy, as overnight temperatures fall below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (freezing). Experts warn that a sudden cold snap sweeping across France may cause “irreversible” damage to crops.
    Arnaud Finistre / AFP / Getty Images

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily sudoku

    Challenge yourself with The Week’s daily sudoku, part of our puzzles section, which also includes guess the number

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    All the places to enjoy the nation’s best hot dogs

    Initially the food of immigrants, the humble combination of a frank wrapped in a bun became part of the country’s cultural fabric. Regional styles vary, but they all honor traditions while showcasing local flavors.

    Detroit-style Coney dog
    What is it? A beef frankfurter in a steamed bun, topped with meat chili, diced white onions and yellow mustard

    Where to try it: There’s “no better spot to indulge” in a Detroit-style Coney than Duly’s Place in the Motor City, said Eater. The diner remains a “go-to” thanks to its “consistency” and “greasy-spoon environment.” 

    New York System hot wiener
    What is it? A wiener made of pork, beef and veal in a steamed bun topped with celery salt, mustard, chopped onions and spiced meat sauce

    Where to try it: Olneyville New York System in Providence has been serving hot wieners in the same spot since the early 1950s. The operation is still family-run, and as such there’s a “‘Cheers’-style vibe where everybody knows your name,” said Tasting Table. Pair your dog with a coffee milk, Rhode Island’s state drink.

    Puka dog 
    What is it? A Polish sausage (or veggie dog) stuffed inside a Hawaiian sweet bread bun, topped with garlic lemon sauce, tropical fruit relish and Hawaiian mustard

    Where to try it: The place where it all began: the Puka Dog hut on Kauai. Ordering is a four-step process, but the “patient” Puka Dog crew will help you “tweak” things if you have “any questions at crunch time,” said SF Gate.

    Read more

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    Cicada

    A heavily mutated Covid-19 variant, aka BA.3.2, that emerged over a year ago and ramped up globally last fall. Cicada has been detected in at least 25 states, according to the CDC. Its many mutations may “cause it to look different to your immune system,” said Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins, to TODAY.com.

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today’s best commentary

    ‘The tech bubble might finally be popping’
    Nitish Pahwa at Slate
    The AI bubble “might finally be on the verge of popping,” says Nitish Pahwa. OpenAI is “shutting down its video-generation model, Sora, just six months after launching a dedicated mobile app and just three months after inking a deal with Disney.” A “highly capitalized AI startup that bails on one of its most prominent creations and largest corporate deals so soon after hyping them up for months on end is not in a good position as a business.”

    ‘A radical message for a kids’ movie’
    David Sims at The Atlantic
    If some children’s films are “progressive allegories of beings transcending their differences, then ‘Hoppers’ is a surprisingly blunt pushback to that notion,” says David Sims. Its advertising “promises goofy hijinks amid an enclave of diverse species whose ecosystem is threatened by humans,” but the movie, in “actuality, is refreshingly mordant about what might really happen if prey and predators were to try banding together: Their efforts would immediately devolve into a despairing, even political, quagmire.”

    ‘A myth about dating troubles for high-earning women’
    Paul Eastwick at The Boston Globe
    When it comes to the “decline in men’s education prospects and the relationship recession, progressive and conservative commentators alike have achieved a rare consensus: They say the first trend explains the second one, because when men are less successful than women, they won’t fall for each other.” But there are “glaring problems with this take.” The “size of a person’s salary has tiny effects on romantic appeal and marital well-being, regardless of gender.”

     
     

    Poll watch

    More than one in four American employees (28%) believe now is a “good time” to find a quality job, compared with 72% who think it’s a bad time, according to a quarterly Gallup survey conducted late last year ​​of 22,368 working adults. This marks a dramatic reversal from mid-2022, when nearly 70% of workers were optimistic. 

     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes, Scott Hocker, Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, Justin Klawans and Joel Mathis, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly.

    Image credits, from top:  Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images / Shutterstock; Jahi Chikwendiu / The Washington Post / Getty Images; Max Zolotukhin / Getty Images; skodonnell / Getty Images
     

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