According to the U.N.'s latest projections, the global population is expected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, from 8.2 billion today. That's earlier — and fewer people — than previously predicted. The population is then expected to plateau at about 10.2 billion by 2100.
Experts say lower birth rates and falling fertility levels, especially in "ultra-low" fertility countries like China, Italy and Spain, are to blame for the earlier peak. Fertility rates are falling worldwide, and governments' pronatalist policies have "almost totally failed to alter that fact," said Vox. The U.N. predictions might miss by a fair amount, but the "changes are generally baked in."
The overall population, before it peaks, will continue to get older. By the late 2070s, the U.N. predicts, there will be more elderly people than children. "We're only beginning to grapple with what an older, shrinking world will feel like," Vox said. "All we can do is adapt."
The population will peak at some point, but "one after another, the projections keep missing," said the Financial Times. Predicting the global population's trajectory is no easy task, and "even tiny perturbations today can compound into yawning gulfs." Some experts believe we will see a peak as soon as 2054, 30 years ahead of schedule, with a global population of about 9 billion.
Maybe the next round of projections "should come with a health warning," said the Financial Times: "These estimates are extremely fuzzy and based on frameworks that were true in the past but may not be today. Use them with caution, and probably err on the low side." |