President Biden said Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin "doesn't have a way out" of the war in Ukraine and that he's "trying to figure out what we do about that," according to USA Today.
Speaking at a political fundraiser near Washington, D.C., Biden said Putin launched the invasion believing Russian troops would achieve a swift victory that would fracture NATO and the European Union, Reuters reported.
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Last month, Bloomberg reported that Kremlin insiders had begun surreptitiously expressing concerns about the possibility of Putin ordering a nuclear strike against Ukraine to achieve his war goals.
Russia has a large stockpile of relatively small-yield tactical nuclear weapons and a military doctrine that justifies using them if its conventional forces come up short. Writing for Global Security Review, Joshua Ball explained that "if Russia were subjected to a major non-nuclear assault that exceeded its capacity for conventional defense, it would 'de-escalate' the conflict by launching a limited — or tactical — nuclear strike."
It might go something like this, per Ball: after a few more months of quagmire, Putin orders a tactical nuclear barrage to blast holes in Ukraine's battlelines. At the same time, he sends a message to NATO: "Look, neither of us wants a strategic nuclear exchange. Withdraw your support for Ukraine, and this can all be over. Your move, Biden."
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