Why Partygate could lead to a Boris Johnson by-election

Boris Johnson could be forced into an autumn by-election if he is found to have misled the House of Commons and banned from Parliament for ten days.

The Telegraph reported that the committee looking into whether the outgoing PM lied to the Commons over illegal lockdown parties in Downing Street has been told that it only needs to prove that Johnson “misled” the House, rather than that he “deliberately” did so.

This lower threshold makes it much easier for the MPs on the privileges committee, which is chaired by Labour MP Harriet Harman, to find Johnson guilty and suspend him from the Commons.

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And in a “hugely significant bit of parliamentary fine print”, said Politico, Commons speaker Lindsay Hoyle has ruled that a suspension of ten days or more “would fall under the Recall Act, meaning Johnson could face a by-election in order to remain an MP”.

By-election would pose ‘major danger’

A by-election would present a “major danger for the Conservatives”, wrote Rachel Wearmouth, deputy political editor of The New Statesman, because it “would come at a time when, as the local elections proved, the Tories’ popularity in Greater London… has reached an all-time low”.

Johnson supporters had hoped that the privileges committee would use the traditional definition of lying to the Commons – that an MP must be proven to have “deliberately misled” the House – rather than lowering the bar of proof to find someone guilty for the act of misleading on its own.

The Independent noted that the committee said that “some have suggested” the inquiry is no longer necessary now Johnson has agreed to step down. “Our inquiry, however, is into the question of whether the House was misled, and political developments are of no relevance to that,” said the MPs.

‘This is an impeachment’

MPs loyal to Johnson have reacted angrily to the news. Speaking to The Telegraph, one veteran Conservative MP described the development as “dynamite” and “an impeachment”. “It is absolutely outrageous,” they added.

A second senior Tory MP said the “only function” of the investigation “appears to be to stoke up prejudice” and that the committee members “clearly want to bury Boris and dance on his political grave”.

Motion signed

Conservative MPs including Bill Cash and Iain Duncan Smith have signed a motion denouncing the privileges committee’s behaviour. The motion expresses the House of Commons’ “concern with the publication of the report by the privileges committee” and “notes the divergence from the established convention of ‘deliberately misleading’”.

Conservatives have also complained that the privileges committee unanimously backed Labour grandee Harman to chair the investigation that could determine the current Tory leader’s fate.

The committee intends to call Johnson to give oral evidence in public in the autumn, under oath. When asked whether the PM would co-operate with the inquiry, his official spokesperson said: “We have said we will assist the committee in their work.”