What will the US economy look like in 2026?

The American economy at the end of 2025 looks very different from a year ago. Tariffs are higher, AI occupies a greater share of overall spending and the federal government under President Donald Trump is demanding a greater say in how businesses are run. All that change leaves observers uncertain about what 2026 will bring.

Wall Street is “generally pretty bullish” heading into the new year, said Fortune. The “massive stimulus” unleashed by Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” should kick in in 2026, giving analysts reason for optimism. But those same observers say the “conditions for success” in the American economy are “getting narrower and narrower.” Many of the good vibes are “derived from the promise of AI,” even though there are “questions mounting” about whether massive investment in the sector will pay off. The one word to describe the economy heading into 2026: “Precarious.”

The White House is predicting “growth of 3% to 4% by the first quarter of 2026,” said Reuters. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said fall’s federal government shutdown knocked a point off of 2025’s economic growth.” The question is, when does it all come back?” he said. Other economists are warning that “slow job growth, higher unemployment and stickier inflation” could dampen the outlook, said Reuters.

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

What did the commentators say?

“There are three possible scenarios,” said Nouriel Roubini at MarketWatch. One involves a short recession followed by recovery. The second also involves a “shallow” recession with a “slower return to growth.” And the third possibility is that “growth remains strong” but inflation also remains stubborn. There are signs the world economy is on track for “stronger growth compared with what we saw in 2025.” Downside risks remain, but “one can be cautiously optimistic heading into the new year.”

The outlook rests on “four pillars,” said Stacey Vanek Smith at Bloomberg. The labor market, inflation, the consumer and artificial intelligence are all factors in projecting how 2026 will go. If any of those elements “falter” during the year, “we’re toast,” said Moody’s Mark Zandi. The risk of a U.S. recession appears to be receding, however. A downturn is unlikely “as long as the fundamentals hold and investors keep their heads.”

“The biggest threat to the 2026 economy is still Donald Trump,” said John Cassidy at The New Yorker. There are signs the economy could get a boost from Trump’s stimulus bill, but the optimistic scenario rests on the idea that “things will be more settled in 2026” than they were in 2025 when the president’s trade wars disrupted the global economy. No one can predict if he will cause more chaos in the new year. “Disruption is his essence.”

What next?

Bank of America forecasts “stronger‑than‑expected economic growth” in 2026, said The Street, though the bank also acknowledges its prediction is “more optimistic than consensus.” Americans will probably experience “more price volatility,” unless inflation is tamed by a weak economy, said USA Today. That means “American consumers may be in for another year of hard times and tough decisions.”