Too few children? China’s ‘population crisis’ explained

There were just 12 million births last year, down from 14.65 million in 2019

A father and daughter celebrating Chinese New Year
(Image credit: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

Will China grow old before it grows rich? That’s the question plaguing officials in Beijing following the alarming results of the country’s seventh census, said Amanda Lee and Orange Wang in the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong). Released last week, the once-a-decade data showed that China’s population hit 1.41 billion last year, up by 5.4% on ten years earlier.

That may sound pretty reasonable; but it actually marked the slowest rate of expansion since records began in 1953. Fertility has plunged: there were just 12 million births last year (down from 14.65 million in 2019); the fertility rate fell to 1.3 children – well below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. The country is ageing rapidly: it has added 80 million old people in a decade. The census suggests that China is heading for a “population crisis”, with a shrinking, ageing populace which could slow the pace of its relentless economic growth, and add greatly to spending on health and care.

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