Is Ethiopia’s civil war at ‘turning point’ as Tigray rebels retake key cities?
New offensive launched after federal government declares unilateral ceasefire
Tigrayan rebel fighters claim to have seized another key town just weeks after retaking the capital of the conflict-torn Ethiopian region from government forces.
A spokesperson told the AFP news agency yesterday that the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had reclaimed Alamata in a new offensive launched after the federal government declared a unilateral ceasefire earlier this month in the face of rebel advances.
The latest reported victory comes after TPLF forces recaptured regional capital Mekelle at the end of June, in what the BBC suggested could mark a “turning point” in the conflict in northern Ethiopia.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
‘Humanitarian ceasefire’
Mekelle was captured by government forces last November in an offensive that was “depicted by the government in Addis Ababa as the finishing blow to forces loyal to the northern region’s former government”, Al Jazeera says.
But that claim was blown out of the water when the rebels reclaimed the city two weeks ago. Local people “waving red and yellow Tigrayan flags” flooded onto the streets to celebrate the end of the eight-month occupation by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s troops, as the Financial Times (FT) reported at the time.
A resident told the paper that “everybody is very happy”, while a TPLF official said that rebel forces were “still in hot pursuit to the south, east, to continue until every square inch of territory is cleared from the enemy”.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The victory marked “a very significant shift in the war”, Will Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told the BBC. Following “significant battlefield gains” by the TPLF, the federal government “was unable to hold on to Mekelle or realised it is in its best interest to withdraw from Tigray”, Davison said.
Unsurprisingly, Ethiopia’s leaders put a different spin on events. The withdrawal from Mekelle was a strategic decision driven by a belief that the city was no longer “the centre of gravity for conflicts”, said PM Abiy, who has just secured another five-year term in office in an election that excluded Tigray.
Abiy later declared a “humanitarian ceasefire”, however, amid rising pressure from the international community following allegations that his government was cultivating a man-made famine in the conflict-torn region.
Regardless of the ceasefire announcement, rebel forces “have continued fighting, seizing more territory” to gain “the upper hand in this long-running conflict”, the BBC reports.
The TPLF’s claims about retaking Alamata, home to around 33,000 people, “could not be independently confirmed because communications were largely down in the area”, France 24 reports. An Ethiopian military spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
The TPLF spokesperson also claimed that the rebels had “launched an offensive” in the southern district of Raya on Monday, and had been “able to absolutely rout” federal defence forces.
“We have been able to secure most of southern Tigray including Korem and Alamata,” the spokesperson said, adding: “We don’t want to give them a chance to regroup.”
What next?
The TPLF has dismissed the government’s call for a ceasefire as a “joke”, after Abiy triggered the conflict by sending the army into Tigray last November to oust the region’s ruling party following months of clashes between the two sides.
Following the withdrawal of federal troops from Mekelle, “experts say Ethiopia’s leader will now be focused on what happens in the west of Tigray”, where the rebels are also fighting forces from the neighbouring state of Amhara amid a long-running territorial dispute.
As the TPLF’s offensive against government forces intensifies, regional forces and militias in Amhara - home to one of the largest ethnic groups in Ethiopia - are “trying to win back some of the territory which they say is rightfully theirs”, says the BBC.
“The Amhara wing of Prosperity Party is one of the two most powerful regional branches of Abiy's ruling party,” Iain McDermott, an analyst at the security consultancy Protection Group International, told the broadcaster. “So that means potentially tolerating and supporting Amhara efforts to annex areas of the Tigray region which many Amharas argue were part of the Amhara region prior to 1991.”
Abiy is also depending on the support of troops from the neighbouring nation of Eritrea, who have been involved in the Tigray conflict since November.
In a bid to break down the rebels, both the “Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have not allowed in sufficient supplies of food” to Tigray, The Economist reports. However, analysts have suggested that the TPLF may attempt to “break the blockade by fighting for access to the Sudanese border or trying to topple the government in Eritrea”.
And such a threat to the stability of Eritrea could see the country pulling its troops out of Ethiopia and leaving Abiy’s government to fight on alone.
In the meantime, however, the humanitarian crisis in Tigray is worsening. “On the day of the Ethiopian army’s pullout from Mekelle, phone lines across Tigray, as well as the limited internet access used by aid organisations for their operations, were severed,” Al Jazeera reports.
A bridge on the Tekeze River, “a key crossing point for aid deliveries into Tigray”, was also destroyed, says the news site, with “both warring factions trading blame” for the demolition.
The United Nations estimates that more than 90% of Tigray’s six million inhabitants are now in need of emergency food aid.
But after reclaiming Mekelle in a key victory “in an atrocity-filled war that Abiy had thought would last just a few weeks”, the Tigray rebels are “in no mood to halt their offensive”, says The Economist. The TPLF is riding high having “scuppered Abiy’s attempt to bring Tigray to heel by force of arms”, adds the paper.
Meanwhile, international criticism is mounting against Abiy, a former Nobel Peace Prize winner now accused of overseeing a conflict “marked by grisly massacres and widespread sexual violence”, France 24 reports.
“Instability across the Horn of Africa is nothing new,” says the BBC, “but there are fears that a worsening situation in Ethiopia could have knock-on effects across the region.”
“Any further fragmentation, let alone state collapse, would obviously be disastrous for the region given Ethiopia’s status in the Horn,” said ICG analyst Davison. “That does not appear to be imminent, but the growing level of risk has to be taken seriously.”
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Joe Evans is the world news editor at TheWeek.co.uk. He joined the team in 2019 and held roles including deputy news editor and acting news editor before moving into his current position in early 2021. He is a regular panellist on The Week Unwrapped podcast, discussing politics and foreign affairs.
Before joining The Week, he worked as a freelance journalist covering the UK and Ireland for German newspapers and magazines. A series of features on Brexit and the Irish border got him nominated for the Hostwriter Prize in 2019. Prior to settling down in London, he lived and worked in Cambodia, where he ran communications for a non-governmental organisation and worked as a journalist covering Southeast Asia. He has a master’s degree in journalism from City, University of London, and before that studied English Literature at the University of Manchester.
-
Today's political cartoons - October 13, 2024
Sunday's cartoons - the swing of things, fear of facts, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 timely cartoons about climate change denial
Cartoons Artists take on textbook trouble, bizarre beliefs, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Kris Kristofferson: the free-spirited country music star who studied at Oxford
In the Spotlight The songwriter, singer and film-star has died aged 88
By The Week UK Published
-
Putin's fixation with shamans
Under the Radar Secretive Russian leader, said to be fascinated with occult and pagan rituals, allegedly asked for blessing over nuclear weapons
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
A brief history of third parties in the US
In Depth Though none of America's third parties have won a presidential election, they have nonetheless had a large impact on the country's politics
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Chimpanzees are dying of human diseases
Under the radar Great apes are vulnerable to human pathogens thanks to genetic similarity, increased contact and no immunity
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Deaths of Jesse Baird and Luke Davies hang over Sydney's Mardi Gras
The Explainer Police officer, the former partner of TV presenter victim, charged with two counts of murder after turning himself in
By Austin Chen, The Week UK Published
-
Quiz of The Week: 24 February - 1 March
Puzzles and Quizzes Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will mounting discontent affect Iran election?
Today's Big Question Low turnout is expected in poll seen as crucial test for Tehran's leadership
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Sweden clears final NATO hurdle with Hungary vote
Speed Read Hungary's parliament overwhelmingly approved Sweden's accession to NATO
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Modern royal scandals from around the world
The Explainer From Spain to the UAE, royal families have often been besieged by negative events
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published