Has Gaza avoided a fifth full-scale war?

A temporary ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Gaza-based Palestinian militants following three days of fighting which marked the most serious flare-up in the region since May 2021.

In the hours since the Egyptian-brokered truce started at 11.30pm local time on Sunday, Palestinian universities and government offices have announced that they are reopening, while plans have been made to assess the extent of the destruction, said an Al Jazeera reporter in Gaza.

Errant strikes on both sides continued in the minutes immediately before and after last night’s deadline, but no violence has been reported since then. Israel has made clear that it “maintains the right to respond strongly” if the ceasefire is violated, said Sky News.

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Forty-four Palestinians, including 15 children, have been killed and 311 injured since the conflict began on Friday, when Israel carried out a targeted strike on a leader of the Islamic Jihad in response to what it said was an imminent attack from Gaza.

Islamic Jihad, Gaza’s second-largest militia, responded by firing hundreds of rockets into Israel, but the Iron Dome, Israel’s air defence system, intercepted 97% of the missiles aimed at urban targets, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Three people in Israel were wounded by shrapnel and around 30 others were lightly hurt.

Israel said several deaths within Gaza were caused by Islamic Jihad accidentally misfiring rockets, including one incident in the Jebaliya refugee camp in which several Palestinian children were killed. Hamas, the militia that runs Gaza, blamed the attack on Israel.

Hamas remained on the sidelines of this latest conflict, “possibly fearing Israeli reprisals and undoing economic understandings with Israel”, said ITV News. Islamic Jihad, which, like Hamas, calls for Israel’s destruction, is much smaller than the ruling organisation and is “viewed as a more militant resistance faction” which often acts independently, explained The Guardian.

Many feared that this latest episode of violence “would result in the fifth full-scale war in Gaza” since Hamas seized control of the local administration in 2007, said Sky News.

What the newspapers said

The fighting has “badly damaged” Islamic Jihad, said The New York Times (NYT), killing two of its leaders, as well as several other militants, and destroying many of its bases and weapons factories.

These factors allowed Israel “to claim victory in this round of fighting”, added the paper, while the notably “muted” response from other Arab countries highlighted “the growing acceptance of Israel by parts of the Arab world”.

The three-day conflict may have also helped “burnish the credentials” of Yair Lapid, Israel’s interim prime minister, who has been accused of lacking the experience necessary to lead the country in times of war.

As the ceasefire approached on Sunday afternoon, Lapid told municipal leaders that Israel had “achieved its goals in the current round of fighting, having eliminated key figures in Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s top command”, reported The Times of Israel.

By contrast, “Palestinians had little to celebrate and many families were left grieving over the loss of life”, said the NYT. Islamic Jihad was also “embarrassed by videos that appeared to show its rockets malfunctioning and hitting civilian areas in Gaza”.

What next?

Although “a peace of sorts” has returned to the “fractious” border between Israel and Gaza, a truce “is not a solution in a region where conflict is an all-too-frequent occurrence”, said Sky News.

The situation is volatile, added the broadcaster, and another strike resulting in the deaths of civilians “may change the calculus on both sides”, particularly if Hamas then decides to intervene.

Although Israel “curbed what it said was an imminent threat from Islamic Jihad”, the “wider impasse in Gaza will continue as long as Hamas is in power there”, said the NYT. The group is “unwilling to recognise Israel or disband its militia, which makes Israel unwilling to end its blockade”.

In a statement on Sunday, caretaker PM Lapid said the military would continue to strike targets in Gaza “in a pinpoint and responsible way in order to reduce to a minimum the harm to noncombatants”, reported the Associated Press. “The operation will continue as long as necessary,” he said.

Tzipi Livni, an Israeli former senior minister and lead negotiator with the Palestinians, told the NYT that Sunday’s ceasefire stopped a “ticking bomb” but “will not bring strategic change in Gaza”.