The rumour mill is swirling ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ latest attempts to balance the books in the 2025 Autumn Budget.
She will deliver her latest fiscal update on 26 November, “amid anaemic growth and higher-than-expected government borrowing”, said The Telegraph. There are fears that Reeves will announce either more tax rises or further spending cuts.
There has already been “plenty of speculation” about tax changes, said Fidelity International, but it is important to “not make snap decisions based on rumours”.
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The Treasury has been considering a “radical overhaul of stamp duty and council tax”, said The Guardian.
Ministers have reportedly been tasked with examining the impact of a new national property tax on the sale of homes worth more than £500,000, with another levy replacing council tax “to repair battered local authority finances”.
The changes would be a boost for homebuyers, said MoneyWeek, but would raise “issues of regional unfairness” as most high-value homes are in the south of the country, plus it could distort the market and disincentivise downsizing.
Landlords could also face “yet another tax raid”, said This Is Money, with the chancellor rumoured to be considering “imposing National Insurance on rental income”. This could “apply further pressure to landlord budgets”, and could push rents higher.
The chancellor’s Spring Statement announced a review of individual savings accounts (ISAs). This has prompted “widespread speculation”, said Fidelity International, that the overall £20,000 limit could be cut for cash ISAs to encourage more people to invest.
But if Reeves wants to encourage people to put their money into the stock market, Richard Wilson, chief executive of interactive investor, said she needs to make “UK stocks and shares more investable” by removing stamp duty on UK shares.
Pension changes
Rumours about changes to pensions come up “every single year”, said Which?, often “not based on anything official”.
A regular rumour is that pension tax relief could be changed to a flat rate for everyone, which would “reduce the perk for those on higher incomes”.
The lifetime allowance, scrapped by the Tories, “could also be brought back by Labour”, said City A.M., but pension reform is a “complex business” with a “high risk of unintended consequences”.
Wealth taxes
The “most fevered speculation” this year is about wealth taxes, said The Times.
The chancellor is rumoured to be considering making capital gains tax applicable on sales above £1.5 million, something that could substantially increase the tax take from high-value property sales.
But the success of a wealth tax would depend on the design, said HFMC Wealth, as it “may lead to unintended consequences such as capital flight, underreporting, and minimal fiscal impact”.
Stealth taxes
While Labour vowed in its general election manifesto last year that it wouldn’t raise taxes on working people, said City A.M., think tanks have suggested the government could “feasibly get away with” extending a freeze on income tax thresholds. The action could raise more than £9 billion.
However, this would create a “stealth tax”, said The i Paper, as “more people are pulled into paying higher rates of tax” as wages grow.
