Ukip's Clacton coup could open TV debate door for Farage

Douglas Carswell, the Tory MP who has defected to Ukip, looks set to win the Clacton by-election easily. A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday puts Ukip a staggering 44 points ahead of the Conservatives – enough to scare off Boris Johnson from standing for the Tories.

For a short while over the weekend, there was a vain hope that Boris might be persuaded to step in and save the seat for the Tories at next month's by-election rather than waiting to see if Uxbridge Tories accept him as their candidate for the May 2015 general election.

Peter Oborne, the Daily Telegraph commentator, urged David Cameron to "beg" Boris to stand: with his "charisma, flair, genius and popular appear" he was the only candidate who "can bring the Ukip bandwagon to a juddering halt" said Oborne.

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But the flattery fell flat as Boris read the small print from the Survation poll: when respondents were asked how they would vote if the Tories could choose Boris as their candidate, the Ukip vote dropped from 64 points to 60 and the Conservative vote rose from 20 points to 27 – still leaving a 33-point gap.

Even Boris's charm has its limits, it seems, and yesterday the Mirror duly reported a source close to the London mayor saying: “Boris wants to steer well clear of Clacton. It could be a very close contest.”

Which leaves the Tories still looking for a candidate who faces almost certain defeat next month – 9 October seems the likely date – but who might stand a chance of winning it back for the Tories at at the 2015 general election.

But there's more to Carswell's impending victory than short-term embarrassment for David Cameron.

With a seat in Westminster – albeit only one – it means Farage can argue for a place in the general election TV debates and the chance to go head-to-head with Cameron, the man whose "insincerity" provoked Carswell to desert his party and force the by-election.

It’s true that Cameron could refuse to take part. Many Tories believe that agreeing to debates in 2010 when the polls suggested he was heading for an overall majority in Parliament was a mistake, and there have been signs of cold feet on the part of the Prime Minister and Tory election strategists.

In contrast, Ed Miliband, despite leading in the polls, is almost as keen as Farage to confront Cameron before a national TV audience. Labour have conducted focus group research that suggests that although voters may be unimpressed by Ed's sound-bites they warm to him when they hear him setting out his case in greater detail. They believe the debates would give him the chance to shine.

Nick Clegg is also likely to be keen to debate, despite having been judged the loser in his two bouts with Nigel Farage during the European elections. The Lib Dems are stuck in single figures in the national polls for two years or more and their hope is that Clegg will perform well as he did in 2010 when – hard to believe to now – he easily outshone both Gordon Brown and David Cameron.

The trio of Miliband, Farage and Clegg might even challenge the broadcasters to “empty chair” Cameron and go ahead with debates between the three of them should the Prime Minister refuse to play ball.

Until now, the Tory leader has been protected from debating with Farage by rules laid down by Ofcom. Broadcasters have a legal obligation to be impartial during elections and in pursuit of that principle Ofcom publishes a list of what it regards as a “major party”.

Because Ukip was already represented in Brussels it was on the list for EU elections in May. But because it doesn’t have any Westminster seats it is not on the list for the May 2015 general election. Quite simply, victory in Clacton next month would change all that.

Cameron can expect to be called a coward if he tries to duck the debates. The last poll on the issue, by ComRes for the Daily Express, was carried out 18 months ago - and the findings were emphatic. By a majority of five to one, respondents agreed that refusal to participate would be prompted by cowardice.