Could an immigration deal tear Democrats apart?

The Senate isn't going home for the holidays quite yet. The New York Times reported that the upper chamber will stay in session next week, in hopes of passing a bill that tightens border security in exchange for Republican support for military aid to Ukraine. The proposed deal would expand detention of migrants at the border and include "expedited removal" of newcomers seeking asylum.

But the proposal is pitting Democrats against each other.

"We shouldn't be scapegoating immigrant lives" over a deal for Ukraine aid, said Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.). Immigrant advocates are reportedly "livid" with President Joe Biden about the possibility. But Politico reported that a growing number of Democrats disagree. "The situation at the border is not sustainable," said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). "And that means that you have to either accept it when it's not sustainable, or you've got to address it."

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"More and more Democrats have grown uncomfortable with the border and asylum situation in the Biden years," Vox reported. The proposed deal means the party would have to accept "Trumpian immigration restrictions Democrats have long condemned." But some Democrats now believe those restrictions are the necessary price of aiding Ukraine. Others think the deal is "politically or substantively necessary" to neutralize the immigration issue in 2024. Other progressives, though, think the deal is "immoral."

What the commentators said

"Biden's re-election becomes more likely" if he can strike an immigration deal with Republicans, conservative columnist Ross Douthat argued in The New York Times. The estimated foreign-born population is reaching new highs, which "unsurprisingly, has pushed some number of Biden voters back toward Trump." But a deal might actually make life easier for immigrant advocates as well. "High rates of immigration make native voters more conservative" — so policies that allow those high rates are "a good way to elect politicians who prefer the border closed."

"Joe Biden is melting on the issue of immigration," added The Arizona Republic's Phil Boas. A recent poll showed that three-quarters of New York Democrats — Democrats — believe migration is a serious issue in their state. The result? One-time pro-immigration politicians like Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) are starting to sound like border hawks. "When the Democratic incumbent president finds himself trailing the latest polls to a twice-impeached, four-time indicted former president, it's time to start asking what's up?"

"We should not be normalizing these type of cruel proposals," countered the ACLU's Maribel Hernández Rivera in an interview with Mother Jones. The Trump administration tried to "eviscerate" the asylum system; Biden came into office promising to reverse those measures — the proposed deal would cement them. "What has happened? I don't know," Rivera said. "But what I can tell you is that immigrants are still human beings."

What next?

If Biden doesn't make a deal on immigration, The Hill reported, Senate Republicans are unlikely to give him support on Ukraine aid. Even Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a national security hawk, is on board tying the two issues. "I feel like my country's border policies are an immediate threat to the safety of the American people," he said this week. "There will be no [foreign aid] supplemental without border security reforms that address the problem."  

But Biden could lose support from Hispanic Democrats if the proposal passes. "Republicans are pitting vulnerable groups against each other to strong-arm policies that will exacerbate chaos at the southern border," said Rep. Nanette Barragán, (D-Calif.), chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. "We are urging the Biden administration to say no, do not take the bait."

The Biden administration, meanwhile, is warning its critics not to panic. "The White House has not signed off on any particular policy proposals or final agreements, and reporting that ascribes determined policy positions to the White House is inaccurate," a spokesperson told NBC News. Whatever ends up in the final deal, though, seems likely to make some of the president's allies angry.