Is AI thickening the fog of the Israel-Hamas war?
How cutting-edge tech is helping — and hurting — our attempts at understanding an already complex conflict
Perhaps no one is more closely associated with the phrase "the fog of war" than Robert McNamara, who would, in the Academy Award-winning documentary of that name, expound on the lessons he claimed to have learned as Secretary of Defense during the Vietnam War. "The fog of war," McNamara claimed, means that "war is so complex it's beyond the ability of the human mind to comprehend all the variables" — a comprehensive inadequacy that is fundamental to human nature, McNamara explained, and which ultimately causes militaries to "kill people unnecessarily."
While McNamara's "fog of war" is specifically in regards to military decisions made in the field, the sense that war inherently obscures and elides easy classifications has expanded the popular understanding of the term to describe the much broader state of confusion and uncertainty experienced in — and often exploited during — moments of conflict, regardless if the person experiencing it is in the field, or simply observing from afar.
It is through this expansive fog of war that much of the world has watched the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, where all sides, as well as external actors, have deployed dueling narratives designed to ossify sentiments and inflame supporters to their cause. Nowhere is this more apparent than on social media, where shaky video clips and grainy photographs make indelible impressions long before accurate vetting and crucial context can catch up. Advocates have long argued that artificial intelligence services can be a boon for digital efficiency and clarity in a rapidly complexifying world, while the proliferation of deepfakes, chatbots, and other AI projects has already shifted how people ingest their online news.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
So can AI help, or hinder, efforts to peer through this current fog of war?
What the commentators said
This current war has "spawned so much false or misleading information online — much of it intentional, though not all — that it has obscured what is actually happening on the ground," The New York Times reported, noting that advances in AI tech "are already compounding that digital cacophony" in what's become an "authenticity crisis" across multiple social media platforms.
Not necessarily so, cautioned The Poynter Institute for Media Studies, who described this latest conflagration as the "first real test of experts’ warnings about the threat of generative AI." That hypothesis "has so far remained unproven," with a recent study from the Harvard Kennedy School's Misinformation Review suggesting that "nowadays, journalists and fact checkers struggle not so much with deepfakes but with visuals taken out of context or with crude manipulations, such as cropping of images or so-called 'cheapfakes.'" To the extent that AI has been used to thicken this current fog of war, "it would either be fake audio (which has got significantly easier to make) or claims of AI used to dismiss real content (either image or audio), which we’re seeing frequently," Sam Gregory, executive director of the human rights nonprofit WITNESS, told Poynter.
To Gregory's second point, uncertainty about AI's ability to assess real images has led to a "second level of disinformation,” University of California Berkeley professor and digital image expert Hany Farid told 404 Media. In particular, a widely circulated image of an Israeli child's burnt corpse has been flagged as being computer generated by the free AI or Not service — and held as evidence that Israel is faking war crimes allegations — despite not having the telltale signs of digital manipulation according to Farid.
With "dozens of these tools out there," and "half of them say real, half say fake, there’s not a lot of signal there," Farid explained.
What next?
Newsrooms should be "putting [...] protections in place" to accurately assess and identify digitally manipulated or created footage, CBS News CEO Wendy McMahon told Axios, claiming just 10% of the 1,000 videos of the Israel-Hamas war her network had received were usable for air.
The challenge doesn't seem to be dissipating anytime soon. AI has been used to "essentially amplify the distribution or dissemination of terrorist propaganda,” FBI Director Chris Wray said during an intelligence agency summit, citing translation tools making messages “more coherent and more credible to potential supporters”
Ultimately, "the cost of sharing a deepfake is part of the war, “ Israeli deep-fake researcher Michael Matias told The Times of Israel "We are at the start of a deepfake revolution."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.
-
What's next for US interest rates?
The Explainer Stubborn inflation forestalls anticipated rate cuts
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
Russia rattles nuclear saber, orders tactical nuke drills
Speed Read President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian military to hold nuclear weapons drills in response to Western "threats"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Five top new women's watches
The Week Recommends From dancing diamonds to reconfigured classics, these models were recently revealed at Watches & Wonders Geneva 2024
By Alexandra Zagalsky Published
-
Israel attacks Rafah as Hamas offers cease-fire
Speed Read Israeli forces have seized a Rafah border crossing
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Is Europe ready to come to its own defense?
Today's Big Question 'There is a risk our Europe could die'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
'Climate studies are increasingly becoming politicized'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Israel warns 100k Gazans to evacuate Rafah
Speed Read The IDF has threatened to operate with "extreme force"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
What would it be like in jail for Trump if he's convicted?
Today's Big Question The Secret Service has begun grappling with how to protect a former president behind bars
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'A financial windfall for Iranian terrorism'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Turkey halts trade with Israel in latest Gaza rift
Speed Read The country plans to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden tackles campus protests, deplores 'chaos'
Speed Read Students have a "right to protest but not a right to cause chaos," the president said
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published