Israel is withdrawing some troops from Gaza. Is the war winding down or entering a new phase?

As the war between Israel and Hamas militants nears its third bloody month of violence, Israeli military officials this week announced plans to withdraw a significant number of troops from the Gaza Strip, with IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari describing the plans as "adjusting the fighting methods" for the ongoing conflict. By rotating out five brigades comprised of thousands of soldiers, the Israeli military believes it can better address the "different characteristics and different operational needs" Hagari explained, insisting the war would "require lengthy fighting" throughout the coming year. 

In spite of Hagari's prediction of more fighting to come, Israel's announcement that it would withdraw troops from active combat was taken by many as a sign that the war which has already claimed the lives of over 20,000 Palestinians — the majority estimated to be civilians — may be entering a new, if uncertain phase. At the same time, the drone-conducted assassination of a top Hamas figure in Lebanon on Tuesday — widely believed to be Israel's doing — threatens to expand the scope of violence across the region, with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati accusing Israel of trying to "drag Lebanon into" the conflict. 

With the entire Middle East on edge over the spiraling violence in Gaza, what do these troop reductions, and cross-border skirmishes mean for Israel, Palestine, and the region as a whole? 

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What the commentators said

Israel's troop redeployments are part of a broader effort to determine "how to sustain lower-intensity fighting over the long term," according to The Wall Street Journal. The reshuffling of soldiers is a sign that Israel has "largely transitioned from offensive to consolidation efforts," military analyst Ofer Shelah told the paper, explaining that after a massive offensive push, "to stay there with so many soldiers is what guerrilla forces want you to do."

Domestically, the demobilization and reshuffling will "ease pressure on Israel’s workforce and its economy," the Journal reported, echoing The Times of Israel's report that the return of a large number of reservists to civilian life will "help bounce back the economy" as well as allow for better training and promotion of soldiers. Reuters estimated that the 300,000 reservists initially called up for the war in Gaza represent some 10-15% of the overall Israeli workforce. 

The withdrawal of what is estimated to be thousands of soldiers from Gaza (Israel has yet to disclose exact numbers) should nevertheless not be mistaken for a sign that Israel is winding down its effort to defeat Hamas, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops this week, according to NPR. Suggestions to the contrary, Gallant said, were simply "wrong." At the same time, the demobilization and shifting of resources toward a more limited scope of action have been exactly what President Joe Biden's administration has been "pushing for," according to one U.S. official who spoke with NBC News. 

The troop withdrawal is a "clear signal that the fight is entering a new phase in line with" American requests, Lt. Gen. Mark Schwartz, the former U.S. security coordinator between Israel and Palestine, told The New York Times. It also comes just days after American and Israeli officials met to discuss shifting the broad Israeli offensive into a narrower push to "maximize focus on high-value Hamas targets," the Times reported. 

What next?

Some of the demobilized brigades are being shifted in anticipation of a potential escalation of violence on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, an Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. At the same time, the redeployments and withdrawals are part of a process that "will take six months at least, and involve intense mopping-up missions against the terrorists" in Gaza, the official explained. 

Ultimately some experts worry that this shift in focus could "allow Hamas to rebuild its military capabilities and infrastructure," according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project obtained by The Jerusalem Post. That a number of the Hamas military commanders killed "led their units for many years," suggests they also had the "ability and time to develop successors to take their place." That level of reconstitution would be "inconsistent with the stated Israeli war aims, which are to destroy Hamas militarily and politically," the groups concluded.