Why a historic Mayorkas impeachment might not matter

The longstanding effort by congressional Republicans to oust Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas appears to be nearing a major inflection point, as the House committee overseeing impeachment proceedings against the Biden administration official looks to advance the process to the full House as early as Jan. 31. Doing so would "[tee] up floor action as early as February," and moves Mayorkas a step closer to becoming "just the second Cabinet secretary in history to be charged with a high crime and misdemeanor," according to CNN which first reported on the expected committee vote date. It's a process that has thus far been as much an exercise in intra-GOP posturing as an attempt to address real policy goals, with Senate Republicans actively working to strike a legislative immigration deal with Mayorkas concurrent to their House colleagues' impeachment effort.

While Republicans have long made restricting immigration — particularly across the U.S.-Mexico border — one of their major tentpole issues, the Mayorkas impeachment effort comes at a particularly tenuous juncture in the political calendar; Donald Trump's dominance in the ongoing 2024 presidential race is in no small part due to the former President's xenophobic rhetoric, while the federal government stands currently at risk of a partial shutdown precipitated by House GOP demands for tougher border policies.

Although a recent NBC News poll shows nearly three-quarters of the country in favor of more border security funding, GOP efforts to pin this broad sense of immigration dissatisfaction on Mayorkas may not be the knockout blow they're hoping for.

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'Don't expect too much drama'

No matter one's qualms about the Biden administration's specific border policies, the complaint about Mayorkas' conduct is essentially one of "maladministration" of those policies, argued conservative legal scholar and pundit Jonathan Turley in The Daily Beast. As such, nothing he's done "amount[s] to high crimes and misdemeanors warranting his impeachment." Without any "new evidence" against Mayorkas, the GOP effort risks establishing a dangerous precedent that makes "any policy disagreement with a cabinet member a high crime and misdemeanor." 

Thin legal justification notwithstanding, Senate rules would make Mayorkas' trial a far different affair than a presidential impeachment, so "don't expect too much drama" Semafor's Kadia Goba warned. Not only would the Democrat-held Senate likely reject convicting a Biden administration figure, but non-presidential impeachments operate under a "different rhythm and ritual" in which the bulk of the proceeding is traditionally handled by an appointed committee of six lawmakers who then deliver a final report to the full body. Or, University of Missouri Professor and impeachment expert Frank Bowman told the outlet, Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) could leapfrog the committee process entirely and bring the impeachment to the floor for a full vote almost immediately. 

At the same time, the House's impeachment inquiry has stumbled recently, with Homeland Security Committee Chair Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) conspicuously backing off this week from earlier demands that Mayorkas testify in person at a hearing on Thursday. At the same time, Green has threatened that he is "considering" holding Mayorkas in contempt of Congress, though it's "unclear" how, "since his panel has not yet subpoenaed Mayorkas, only invited him to testify voluntarily," Politico's Jordain Carney reported. The overall effect, per Democrats, is the impression that "the proceedings have been rushed to back a predetermined conclusion" by Republicans, according to The Hill. 

It might not ever come to that

This expedited push toward impeachment is buoyed by some "swing-district Republicans" who have "expressed newfound openness" to the process, according to Time. Given their slim House majority, Republicans would need lockstep unanimity to pass an impeachment measure, exposing other moderate Republicans to election-year risks, with Democrats "closely monitoring" the rhetoric, while highlighting "how the pursuit of Mayorkas' impeachment endangers vulnerable members." 

Moreover, frustration at Mayorkas may undermine Republicans themselves. As reader Randy Maddox pointed out in an opinion letter for The Washington Post, "Congress writes the immigration laws. Congress allocates funding."

Ultimately, if Mayorkas is impeached and convicted, nothing will truly change, admitted Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the GOP lead on Senate border security negotiations. Mayorkas is simply "gearing up President Biden's policies," Lankford told reporters earlier this month. Even if they were to "swap" secretaries, "the policies are going to be exactly the same."