House Republicans unite in the new year with the same border stalemate

Against a backdrop of corrugated metal and rings of razor wire, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) kicked off the 2024 legislative season with a show of political force at the country's southern border with Mexico, declaring the recent surge in migrant crossings a "catastrophe" and a "disaster of the president's own design." Enveloped by more than 60 Republican lawmakers at his press conference in Eagle Pass, TX on Wednesday, Johnson — less than three months into his tenure as speaker — framed immigration as a matter of national security, claiming the Biden administration had "laid out a welcome mat to illegal immigrants, smugglers and cartels" while predicting that the GOP would succeed in flipping the White House, regain control of the Senate, and expand its House majority "in large measure because of this issue."

Wednesday's event comes as House Republicans ramp up their longstanding effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, with a Homeland Security Committee meeting entitled "Havoc in the Heartland: How Secretary Mayorkas' Failed Leadership Has Impacted the States" scheduled for next week, per a committee press release issued on Wednesday. At the same time, Johnson's Senate colleagues remain locked in intense negotiations over a bipartisan border security bill to be coupled with aid for both Israel and Ukraine, as Arizona Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema insisted to reporters this week that both sides were "closing in" on a final agreement. 

If this all sounds vaguely familiar, that's because the dynamics on display this week are broadly the same as those that have animated much of the past legislative season: a push for hardline border laws with the open question of whether House Republicans will accept a bipartisan deal from the upper chamber — with crucial foreign aid funds in the balance. Will Johnson's latest effort change that basic equation? 

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'The House stands at a crossroads'

While the House GOP's messaging has largely remained consistent from last year to now, this week's event in Texas signifies both a show of strength for Johnson, as well as a potential conflict. Because "the House stands at a crossroads," there is an opportunity for Republicans to "extract significant policy changes" from the White House, according to Semafor's Kadia Goba. By appearing with such a large delegation — including "Republicans in competitive districts" who have backed impeaching Mayorkas — Wednesday's event was a "show of unity heading into the next phase" of negotiations in which Republicans will likely reject any bipartisan compromise that doesn't hew closely to a hardline immigration bill they passed last year. 

"I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating," Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) told CNN. And while this isn't necessarily an "unusual sentiment," MSNBC's Steve Benen explained, it's nevertheless striking to hear a lawmaker say out loud that it's "preferable to reject a policy agreement — even one that includes Republican priorities" so long as it denies the White House a "win."

'Shifting their attention to regular spending bills'

While the currently looming impasse hinges on the linkage between a border bill and supplemental aid for Ukraine and Israel, the Eagle Pass event foreshadowed a potential expansion of the GOP's negotiating arena; Republicans in both the House and Senate have begun "shifting their attention to regular spending bills" which are their "greatest leverage" in wringing hardline border concessions from the White House, according to The Hill. That expansion, in turn, heightens the risk of a partial — or even full — government shutdown in the coming months, with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) telling the outlet that he will work to ensure there is no funding bill passed until the border is secured to his liking, adding that "everybody I've talked to in the House, that's where they are" as well. 

Affirming Scott's point, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) threatened that "if this border is not shut down, then we must shut down the government," on X.

"None of us want to shut down the government," Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Tx) lamented on Wednesday, nevertheless leaving open that possibility. 

In a statement to Politico, White House Spokesperson Andrew Bates rejected the GOP's threats and highlighted Republican legislative opposition to existing border security measures, saying "actions speak louder than words."