Trump uses tariffs to upend Brazil's domestic politics

President Donald Trump's surprise announcement on Wednesday that the White House planned to levy a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports has sent shockwaves through both countries, leaving consumers and producers scrambling to assess the full impact.

But as Trump made clear, the tariffs aren't borne of economic necessity, since the United States currently runs a trade surplus with Brazil. Instead, the proposed fees are a vector for political leverage on behalf of former Brazilian President and MAGA ally Jair Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for attempting to overturn his 2022 electoral loss to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Tariffs are about 'more than just trade'

Although in the past year Brazil has purchased nearly $7.5 billion more American goods than vice versa, the South American nation has "historically run a small trade deficit with the U.S.," said TS Lombard economic analyst Elizabeth Johnson to Al Jazeera. But as Trump's bombastic letter notifying da Silva of the looming tariffs made clear, the move is "very much political," coming as part of the Bolsonaro family's effort to "get Trump to weigh in on the ongoing trial of Jair Bolsonaro." The "overtly political tone" of Trump's missive was a "break" from the dozens of other tariff notifications sent over the past week, said Politico, even as it falls "in line with Trump's belief that tariffs are about more than just trade," to be used as "leverage" to "pressure countries to cave on any number of different issues."

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Given that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs are "supposedly about national security and reducing trade deficits," it's "more than a little odd" that his letter "begins with a rant about a 'witch hunt' against Bolsonaro," said National Review. There is "no economic factor that "justifies a measure of this size," said Ricardo Alban, the head of Brazil's National Industry Confederation, to The Wall Street Journal. Trump is simply "taxing American consumers to try to do a favor for one of his political allies," said NPR's Kai Ryssdal on Bluesky.

An 'authoritarian fantasy' that's 'doomed to fail'

The sudden imposition of 50% tariffs has left Brazil, South America's largest economy, with "few options to deescalate," Reuters said, but Trump "may have overestimated the country's vulnerability to the levies." While the high tariffs will still be "painful," Brazil is a "long way from having the same vulnerability" other targeted nations face, particularly in the short term, one Brazilian diplomat told the news service.

Trump's "crude attempt at blackmail" against Brazil's political system is an "authoritarian fantasy" that is "doomed to fail," said the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper. The threat "will have no effect" on Bolsonaro's trial, and "may end up worsening" the related legal troubles of Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former president. Conversely, the tariffs could end up bolstering de Silva and his government. The "forces" that Trump's actions can "unleash in Brazil, like anti-Americanism, are very significant,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at Brazil's Getulio Vargas Foundation, to The Wall Street Journal.

Brazilians will be "incredibly offended" by Trump's "counterproductive" threat, said former Obama administration diplomat to Latin America, Stephen McFarland, to Politico. If enacted, these tariffs will result in a "strong nationalist reaction that ironically will boost" da Silva, and Brazilian conservatives will be stuck trying to "clap for somebody who's trying to humiliate a Brazilian president."