What will happen in 2024? Predictions and events

The 16th-century French astrologer Michel de Nostredame, better known as Nostradamus, is said to have predicted the assassination of JFK, the 9/11 terror attacks and the coronavirus pandemic.

According to Wion, more than 70% of his prophecies have so far come true. So which of a climate catastrophe ("The dry earth will grow more parched, and there will be great floods"), a naval confrontation with China ("Red adversary will become pale with fear. Putting the great Ocean in dread"), royal tumult (the "King of the Isles" will be "driven out by force" due to "persistent attacks on both himself and his second wife") or the election of a new young pope ("Through the death of the very old Pontiff. A Roman of good age will be elected") will we see in 2024?

As for The Week's own crystal ball gazing, last year's predictions were something of a mixed bag. We were correct that India would surpass China as the world's most populous nation and 2023 would be a breakout year for artificial intelligence, but fears of a full-blown global recession and peace in Ukraine did not come to pass.

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While our record may not be quite as a good as Nostradamus', that's not going to stop us having another go. Here's what could grab world headlines in 2024.

Half the world votes

It has been dubbed a "mega-election" year. In 2024, some 4.2 billion people – more than half the world's population – will be eligible to vote in more than 70 countries.

The most consequential will be November's US presidential election, when voters are likely to be asked to give their verdict on Donald Trump, who, according to The Economist, has a "one-in-three chance of regaining the presidency".

The result may depend on the outcome of several trials involving the former president set to conclude next year and could come down to a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But "the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine", said The Economist. 

Indeed, "election-rigging in Russia may mean Vladimir Putin's fate depends more on American voters than Russian ones", with few expecting March's Russian presidential race to deliver anything other than a landslide for the current occupant of the Kremlin.

It looks set to be a similar story for the world's largest democracy, India, which holds its general election between April and May. Despite growing unhappiness with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government due to high inflation and unemployment, his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is still on track to "comfortably win a third term in elections next year due to his personal popularity", predicted Reuters.

Election watchers will also be keeping a keen eye on Iran, which goes to the polls in March to elect a new parliament. It will be the first vote since nationwide protests rocked the regime following the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, but "many conservatives are determined to tighten their grip on power", said VoA.

Finally, there is the small matter of a UK general election. Technically, Rishi Sunak can wait until January 2025 to call a vote but few expect him to hold off that long, with May or October 2024 the most likely dates. And with polls showing his Conservative Party trailing Labour by double-digits he will be hoping for a game-changing event to move the dial.

Ceasefire in Gaza

The claim by Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan in September that the Middle East "is quieter today than it has been in two decades" highlights the folly of trying to predict the future. Just a week later the region erupted with the 7 October Hamas attack and subsequent Israeli response that has divided opinion around the world.

While Israel has remained steadfast in its stated objective to completely eliminate Hamas in the face of growing international pressure, the most likely outcome in the coming months is that the group "both as a military force and a political movement, survives", Mohammad Alsaafin wrote for The Nation.

The question then becomes whether Israel will agree to a ceasefire despite not meeting its main objective and who will ultimately be in control of Gaza come the end of the year. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said his forces will maintain "overall security responsibility" in the territory "for an indefinite period" after the war, but it has been suggested he could hand over to an Arab or international force or even the Palestinian Authority.

Whatever the outcome, the war is already "reshaping the 2024 political landscape" abroad, said Politico; for example, casting an "ever-growing shadow over American politics and elections".

A deal in Ukraine

With international attention focused firmly on Gaza and Ukraine's much-touted counteroffensive failing to make the breakthrough many had hoped for, 2024 could be a year of stalemate for Russia's war in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, admitted last month that the war had more-or-less reached a standstill and predicted there would "most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough" unless a significant technological change occurred on the battlefield.

Record defence spending for next year announced by Russia – exceeding 6% of GPD for the first time since the fall of communism – shows that the Kremlin has "no intention of ending its war against Ukraine anytime soon: on the contrary", said the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

"Politics will prove rough for Ukraine in the year ahead," reported The Interpreter. Continued support from the US will come under the spotlight in the heat of a presidential campaign, while The Guardian reported that Putin may begin full mobilisation after his own re-election in the spring. 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also have to decide whether to go ahead with scheduled elections in 2024 with the country still under martial law and having previously said it was "utterly irresponsible to engage in topics related to an election in such a frivolous manner".

Given all these factors, pressure will continue to grow on Ukraine to "cut a deal with the Kremlin", a Washington Post columnist argued.

Flying cars

It seems 2024 could finally be the year that so-called "flying cars" take to the skies. Technically known as eVTOL aircraft, standing for "electric vertical take-off and landing", dozens of companies around the world have been in a race to develop a "quieter, cheaper and emission-free aircraft, that can land right in the heart of cities", said the BBC's technology of business editor Ben Morris.

These could become commercially available in some US cities in 2024, reported CNBC, even if "regulations for managing the new form of air traffic will be a concern". 

Hugh Martin, from Lacuna Technologies, which helps cities create transportation policies, told the news network there was a difference between when cars can fly and when they will be safe and reliable for navigating the skies.

It was hoped the world's first electric air taxi network would be available in time for the Paris Olympics but the city council has rejected the pioneering scheme as noisy, elitist and pointless. Enter Donald Trump, who has set out a vision of a Jetsons-inspired commute should he be re-elected in November.

Return to the Moon

If the possibility of flying cars is not futuristic enough, 2024 could also see the first manned mission to the Moon in over half a century. Nasa's Artemis II is due to launch in November and will circumvent the Moon and return to Earth, but without landing on the lunar surface. The ten-day voyage is designed to test the Space Launch System rocket and the Orion spacecraft for future missions.

As well as being the first humans to reach the vicinity of the Moon since those of Apollo 17 in 1972, three of the four-person crew (Victor Glover, Christina Hammock Koch and Jeremy Hansen) will become "the first black man, first woman and first non-American respectively to leave Earth orbit", noted The Economist.