Why reports of Donald Trump's demise are greatly exaggerated

Flags at half-mast

The speculation appears to have begun when a photograph of what looked to be bruising on Trump's right hand went viral in June, sparking theories he had been on an IV drip. Weeks later, it was revealed he was being treated for a non-life-threatening condition causing poor circulation and swelling in his lower limbs, said Al Jazeera.

Vice President J.D. Vance unwittingly fanned the flames when he said that if a "terrible tragedy" were to occur, he was ready to step into the role of president, seen by the conspiracy-minded as "evidence that something was awry".

As social media accounts began to call attention to Trump's absence from public engagements, hashtags like #trumpisdead and #whereistrump started trending and users searched for evidence to support the theory that the president was dying or dead, such as flags flying at half-mast at the White House. (This was actually in response to a school shooting.)

The story got a tongue-in-cheek boost when "The Simpsons" creator Matt Groening said the long-running cartoon would end only when "you-know-who dies", a reference to the show's "reputation for supposedly predicting real world events", said The Mirror.

This is not the first time Trump has been rumoured to have passed away, said The Tab. In 2020, at the height of the Covid pandemic, social media was abuzz with hearsay that he'd died from an overdose of the virus treatment hydroxychloroquine. In 2022, a comedian sparked another Trump death hoax, and by 2023 it was enough of a trope that the president's son Donald Trump Jr. joked on Twitter that his father was no longer with us.

'Degree of plausibility'

For rumours to spread, they must "have some degree of plausibility", said Psychology Today, with advanced age adding credence to speculation over the health of leaders. During his presidency, Joe Biden was also the subject of death hoaxes, as well as frequent speculation on his health and mental competence. Trump's physical condition and mental cognition have been called into question repeatedly during both his first and current terms.

Such tales are not new, with historical conspiracies having alleged the premature death of leaders from Joseph Stalin to Fidel Castro. But while nearly every US president has "been the subject of death rumours", most presidents served before social media, where platforms are "notorious for amplifying unverified claims", which can then rapidly "spread in the digital echo chamber".

Continually repeating a claim gives it credibility in an effect known as the "illusion of truth", and it follows then that more people are likely to believe it. Accusations that Trump's alleged death had been covered up simply played into the "widespread distrust" we have of politicians and the media. And in this context, "even the flimsiest of claims" can be accepted.