The latest survey from Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling shows that the 2014 Senate races could remain tightly contested — even after November, and into a special runoff election in Louisiana between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and her likely Republican opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy.
Under Louisiana's electoral system, the election this November is in fact their primary, with all candidates listed on the same ballot together regardless of party. Anybody who wins over 50 percent of the vote will then be elected outright; but in the races where nobody hits that magic number, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff election on December 6.
In PPP's survey for the November round, Landrieu leads with 44 percent, followed by Cassidy at 27 percent, plus two more Republican contenders, tea party-backed retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness with 8 percent, and State Rep. Paul Hollis at 5 percent.
Then in PPP's runoff test, Landrieu and Cassidy are tied at 47 percent apiece.
The poll was conducted from June 26 to June 29, and has a plus or minus 3.8 percent margin of error. PPP President Dean Debnam writes in the polling analysis: "The big question is whether Mary Landrieu has much room to grow if she doesn't get to 50 percent in November."