Nepal could experience substantial aftershocks for years


In the days since a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal on Saturday and killed more than 4,300 people, dozens of aftershocks of 4.5 magnitude and greater have hit as well, and the U.S. Geological Survey warns that there is a better than 50-50 chance of another 6.0 quake or higher taking place in the next week and the next month.
The USGS forecast is based on where the earthquake took place — in this case, a deep boundary between colliding continental plates, NPR reports. It released stress that had been building up for 150 years, triggering smaller quakes near the epicenter. "What's happening, particularly for these more remote aftershocks, is they are striking on the neighboring faults," Ross Stein, scientist emeritus at the USGS, told NPR, "and those neighboring faults could rupture in subsequent large earthquakes."
There is a 1-2 percent chance that in the next few years an aftershock more powerful than than Saturday's quake could strike the area. "It's kind of a cruel part of aftershocks that we cannot depend on them getting smaller," Stein said. "They just get less and less frequent with time."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Catherine Garcia has worked as a senior writer at The Week since 2014. Her writing and reporting have appeared in Entertainment Weekly, The New York Times, Wirecutter, NBC News and "The Book of Jezebel," among others. She's a graduate of the University of Redlands and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.
-
See the bright lights from these 7 big-city hotels
The Week Recommends Immerse yourself in culture, history and nightlife
-
Scientists want to regrow human limbs. Salamanders could lead the way.
Under the radar Humans may already have the genetic mechanism necessary
-
Seven wild discoveries about animals in 2025
In depth Mice have Good Samaritan tendencies and gulls work in gangs
-
Nobody seems surprised Wagner's Prigozhin died under suspicious circumstances
Speed Read
-
Western mountain climbers allegedly left Pakistani porter to die on K2
Speed Read
-
'Circular saw blades' divide controversial Rio Grande buoys installed by Texas governor
Speed Read
-
Los Angeles city workers stage 1-day walkout over labor conditions
Speed Read
-
Mega Millions jackpot climbs to an estimated $1.55 billion
Speed Read
-
Bangladesh dealing with worst dengue fever outbreak on record
Speed Read
-
Glacial outburst flooding in Juneau destroys homes
Speed Read
-
Scotland seeking 'monster hunters' to search for fabled Loch Ness creature
Speed Read