Donald Trump basically can't win the presidential race without Florida, so his campaign got some good news on Wednesday morning in a new Bloomberg Politics poll showing him beating Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points in the state. In a four-way race, Trump has 45 percent to Clinton's 43 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 2 percent. In a two-way race, Trump leads Clinton in Florida by 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent. Trump's edge, says J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the survey, appears to be from his 2-point lead with independent voters in a head-to-head matchup. "This race may come down to the independent vote," she said. "Right now, they tilt for Trump. By a narrow margin, they opted for Obama over Romney in 2012."
The same poll shows Sen. Marco Rubio (R) with a 10-point lead over Democratic challenger Rep. Patrick Murphy, 51 percent to 41 percent, thanks again to a lead among independents. The poll of 953 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-24, and has an overall margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points. It is also a bit of an outlier, so far. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Clinton up 3.1 points in Florida, and FiveThirtyEight has Clinton with a 72 percent shot at winning the state, though neither average includes this new Bloomberg Politics poll.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Organic wines that won't cost the EarthThe Week Recommends From a 'zippy' muscadet to a 'dangerously drinkable' malbec
-
Can the UK avoid the Trump tariff bombshell?Today's Big Question President says UK is 'way out of line' but it may still escape worst of US trade levies
-
Beyoncé's record-breaking night at the GrammysTalking Point Long-denied Album of the Year win rights a 'historic sense of grievance'
-
Trump says 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico start Feb. 1Speed Read The tariffs imposed on America's neighbors could drive up US prices and invite retaliation
-
Trump blames diversity, Democrats for DC air tragedySpeed Read The president suggested that efforts to recruit more diverse air traffic controllers contributed to the deadly air crash
-
White House withdraws Trump's spending freezeSpeed Read President Donald Trump's budget office has rescinded a directive that froze trillions of dollars in federal aid and sowed bipartisan chaos
-
OpenAI announces ChatGPT Gov for government useSpeed Read The artificial intelligence research company has launched a new version of its chatbot tailored for the US government
-
Caroline Kennedy urges Senate to reject RFK Jr.Speed Read Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s cousin said he should not become President Donald Trump's health secretary, calling his medical views 'dangerous'
-
GOP senator reneged on voting against HegsethSpeed Read North Carolina senator Thom Tillis provided the deciding vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as defense secretary
-
Trump sparks chaos with spending, aid freezesSpeed Read A sudden freeze on federal grants and loans by President Donald Trump's administration has created widespread confusion
-
Trump feuds with Colombia on deportee flightsSpeed Read Colombia has backed off from a trade war with the U.S., reaching an agreement on accepting deported migrants following tariff threats from President Donald Trump
