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Trump leads Clinton by only 3 points in Texas

Donald Trump had some good polling news out of Florida and New Hampshire on Wednesday, and early Thursday morning, he got some less-good news from a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll of likely voters in the Lone Star State.

The poll, conducted Oct. 14-23, ending right before early voting began on Oct. 24, has Trump beating Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent. This is the second poll this month showing Trump up just 3 points over Clinton, and the second where the two are within the margin of error. Trump and Clinton are tied among female voters, and more Trump voters said they are voting against Clinton (53 percent) than actually want Trump to be president (47 percent); 66 percent of Clinton voters want her to be president, while 34 percent mostly don't want Trump to win.

"This is the trend that we've been seeing in polling for the last two weeks,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the UT/TT Poll, and Trump narrowly ahead is probably "where this race really stands." The margin of error for likely voters is ± 3.16 percentage points. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump currently has an 84 percent shot of winning Texas.