Megyn Kelly's poll-wrangling panel hunts for Donald Trump's path to victory

On the night before Election Day, Megyn Kelly took a final look at the polls with her panel of poll-watchers: Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia, Fox News digital politics editor Chris Stirewalt, and Tom Bevin, publisher of RealClearPolitics. She began by mocking Nate Silver, "a hot mess during the primary season" who now puts Hillary Clinton's odds of winning at 70 percent. Bevin said he "roughly" agrees with Silver's assessment. Stirewalt agreed it doesn't look great for Donald Trump, but cautioned against reading too much into early voting numbers and trends. "Every cycle more people vote early," he said, "so it's harder to extrapolate past results into the future."

Kelly noted that Sabato's "Crystal Ball" predicts a Clinton win of 322 electoral votes and a 50-50 Senate. "Why can't you see the scenario where Trump wins North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and then flips Pennsylvania — which would do it for him — or Michigan plus one other?" Kelly asked. "Well, Megyn, I can see it," Sabato said, laughing. "I don't think it's likely, I really don't." He agreed with Stirewalt about the dangers of reading too much into early voting, but added: "I think the odds are very good that Hillary Clinton will be elected president. You can argue about the exact number of electoral votes — God only knows, it could be lower than our projections, it could be higher — but with 322, basically Clinton can lose some of her key states and still win. Donald Trump has to carry everything."

If Trump does eke out a win, though, Kelly said, what would be the first signs, "what do you think are the most vulnerable states for her that he might check off?" Sabato said North Carolina, then Florida — "if he doesn't carry that, Trump has no chance. New Hampshire you would add." Bevin said to look at whether Trump overperforms his polls in Indiana, which will tell us his voters are turning out. "For Donald Trump to win, he needs an army of older white voters to basically storm the polls," Stirewalt said. "That's why Michigan is as close as it is." Watch below. Peter Weber

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