More than 46 million people voted before Election Day this year, about on par with 2012 numbers, but a sharp increase in early voting by Latinos and women in key swing states has boosted optimism among Democrats and the Hillary Clinton campaign. It's difficult to draw any firm conclusions from early voting, because more than half the electorate hasn't voted yet and different states have different disclosure rules, but the sharp rise in Latino turnout in Nevada and Florida especially is widely considered bad news for Donald Trump. At the same time, there has been an across-the-board decrease in black early votes, especially in North Carolina, likely due to restricted early polling places and hours, and that could tilt the state toward Trump.
Hispanic voters "really might decide this election," says Nate Cohn at The New York Times. "Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago." He includes some caveats: "It's too soon to say whether it will be decisive for her," in part because "the geographic distribution of Hispanic voters means that many of her gains will help her in noncompetitive states like Texas and California, not Michigan and Pennsylvania," Cohn said. "But the surge is real, and it's big."
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