More than 46 million people voted before Election Day this year, about on par with 2012 numbers, but a sharp increase in early voting by Latinos and women in key swing states has boosted optimism among Democrats and the Hillary Clinton campaign. It's difficult to draw any firm conclusions from early voting, because more than half the electorate hasn't voted yet and different states have different disclosure rules, but the sharp rise in Latino turnout in Nevada and Florida especially is widely considered bad news for Donald Trump. At the same time, there has been an across-the-board decrease in black early votes, especially in North Carolina, likely due to restricted early polling places and hours, and that could tilt the state toward Trump.
Hispanic voters "really might decide this election," says Nate Cohn at The New York Times. "Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago." He includes some caveats: "It's too soon to say whether it will be decisive for her," in part because "the geographic distribution of Hispanic voters means that many of her gains will help her in noncompetitive states like Texas and California, not Michigan and Pennsylvania," Cohn said. "But the surge is real, and it's big."
If Clinton wins Florida, Trump's path to 270 electoral votes is vanishingly small. On CNN Monday night, Republican strategist Ana Navarro — who enthusiastically voted against Trump and reluctantly for Clinton — explained the galvanizing effect Trump has had on the Latino community in Florida. Peter Weber
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Critics’ choice: Watering holes for gourmandsFeature An endless selection of Mexican spirits, a Dublin-inspired bar, and an upscale Baltimore pub
-
Argentinian beef is at the center of American farmers’ woesThe Explainer ‘It feels like a slap in the face to rural America,’ said one farmer
-
‘Businesses that lose money and are uncompetitive won’t survive’Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Senate votes to kill Trump’s Brazil tariffSpeed Read Five Senate Republicans joined the Democrats in rebuking Trump’s import tax
-
Border Patrol gets scrutiny in court, gains power in ICESpeed Read Half of the new ICE directors are reportedly from DHS’s more aggressive Customs and Border Protection branch
-
Shutdown stalemate nears key pain pointsSpeed Read A federal employee union called for the Democrats to to stand down four weeks into the government standoff
-
Trump vows new tariffs on Canada over Reagan adspeed read The ad that offended the president has Ronald Reagan explaining why import taxes hurt the economy
-
NY attorney general asks public for ICE raid footageSpeed Read Rep. Dan Goldman claims ICE wrongly detained four US citizens in the Canal Street raid and held them for a whole day without charges
-
Trump’s huge ballroom to replace razed East WingSpeed Read The White House’s east wing is being torn down amid ballroom construction
-
Trump expands boat strikes to Pacific, killing 5 moreSpeed Read The US military destroyed two more alleged drug smuggling boats in international waters
-
Trump demands millions from his administrationSpeed Read The president has requested $230 million in compensation from the Justice Department for previous federal investigations
