Paul Ryan would've been a lock to win re-election. Without him, the GOP has a problem.


House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has decided not to run for re-election, Axios reported Wednesday. The speaker has apparently told "confidants" that he will announce his decision to retire "soon."
Ryan represents Wisconsin's 1st District, where he's an extremely strong candidate. He won re-election in 2016 with 65 percent of the vote — but perhaps more troubling for the GOP, he won the Republican primary with a whopping 84 percent of the vote, defeating hard-right candidate Paul Nehlen, a person with views so far on the fringe that the Wisconsin Republican Party disavowed him earlier this year.
The filing deadline in Wisconsin is June 1, so should Ryan confirm his retirement plans, the state party would have a bit of time to find a suitable alternative candidate to Nehlen. But even still, Cook Political Report's David Wasserman notes, while Wisconsin's 1st may have been a lock for the GOP under Ryan, that's not so much the case without him:
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Rumors that Ryan had reached his limit with the speakership — a job he very publicly didn't want — have swirled for months now, as he has struggled to maintain his reputation as the GOP's moral leader while balancing a relationship with President Trump. But if he indeed walks away from the House, it's a sign of trouble for the GOP: "This is a Titanic, tectonic shift," one Republican insider told Axios. "This is going to make every Republican donor believe the House can't be held."
Democrats need to flip 24 Republican seats to win the House in this year's midterms. Read more about what might happen if they pull it off here at The Week.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Kimberly Alters is the news editor at TheWeek.com. She is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University.
-
The Retrievals, series two: 'essential listening'
The Week Recommends The second instalment of this hard-hitting podcast delves into the 'appallingly common injustice' of women having C-sections without pain relief
-
Cool off at the best saltwater pools in the UK
The Week Recommends From 1930s Art Deco lidos to 'magical' tidal pools, these sheltered spots offer a safer alternative to sea swimming
-
Kinmen Islands: Taiwan's frontline with China
In Depth Just a few miles off the mainland, the Kinmen Islands could be attacked first if China invades Taiwan
-
SCOTUS greenlights mass DOE firings
Speed Read The Supreme Court will allow the Trump administration to further shrink the Education Department
-
Cuomo announces third-party run for NYC mayor
Speed Read He will go up against progressive Democratic powerhouse Zohran Mamdani and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams
-
Secret Service 'failures' on Trump shooting
Speed Read Two new reports detail security breakdowns that led to attempts on the president's life
-
Trump set to hit Canada with 35% tariffs
Speed Read The president accused Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of failing to stop the cross-border flow of fentanyl
-
Mahmoud Khalil files $20M claim over ICE detention
Speed Read This is the 'first damages complaint' brought by an individual targeted by the Trump's administration's 'crackdown' on Gaza war protesters
-
Trump threatens Brazil with 50% tariffs
Speed Read He accused Brazil's current president of leading a 'witch hunt' against far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro
-
AI scammer fakes Rubio messages to top officials
Speed Read The unknown individual mimicked Rubio in voice and text messages sent to multiple government officials
-
SCOTUS greenlights Trump's federal firings
speed read The Trump administration can conduct mass federal firings without Congress' permission, the Supreme Court ruled