President Trump may want to start tempering expectations for a so-called "red wave" in the November midterms.
A new poll released Monday shows that among likely voters, Democrats have the advantage in 69 battleground districts that will determine who controls the House of Representatives for the next two years, per The Washington Post. Voters in these districts were asked whether they favor the specific Republican or Democratic candidate running for the House, and 50 percent chose the Democrat while 46 percent chose the Republican.
Although this is only a four-point lead, it's concerning for the GOP considering in 2016, Republicans held a 15-point advantage in these districts; voters back then favored the Republican candidate 56 percent compared to just 41 percent for the Democratic candidate. It's also a concern for them because only six of the districts included in this poll are held by Democrats right now, while 63 are currently held by Republicans, and President Trump won 48 of them in the 2016 election. Even just specifically looking at the districts that Trump won, Democrats there still have a one-point advantage over Republicans, 48 percent to 47 percent.
The GOP will lose its majority in the House of Representatives if Democrats can manage to gain 23 seats. FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Democrats have a 73.9 percent chance of doing so just that.
The Washington Post's poll was conducted by reaching 2,672 likely voters over computers, mobile devices, tablets, and phones from Sept. 19 through Oct. 5. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points. Read the full results at The Washington Post. Brendan Morrow