Republicans are probably keeping the Senate

(Image credit: iStock/andriano_cz)

published 9 October 2018

Democrats' odds of winning the Senate are down to one in five, a FiveThirtyEight forecast found on Tuesday.

Republicans have a 79 percent chance of retaining their majority in the Senate, the analysis concluded, up from 67 percent just a few weeks ago.

Pundits largely predict that the midterm elections will flip the House over to Democratic control, but the Senate is less likely to change come November. That's partly because lawmakers in red states are losing ground; for example, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) has seen her numbers decline for months. Democrats in Indiana and Missouri are also losing popularity, making it more likely that Republicans could unseat the incumbents.

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Summer Meza has worked at The Week since 2018, serving as a staff writer, a news writer and currently the deputy editor. As a proud news generalist, she edits everything from political punditry and science news to personal finance advice and film reviews. Summer has previously written for Newsweek and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, covering national politics, transportation and the cannabis industry.

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