Republicans are probably keeping the Senate

Democrats' odds of winning the Senate are down to one in five, a FiveThirtyEight forecast found on Tuesday.

Republicans have a 79 percent chance of retaining their majority in the Senate, the analysis concluded, up from 67 percent just a few weeks ago.

Pundits largely predict that the midterm elections will flip the House over to Democratic control, but the Senate is less likely to change come November. That's partly because lawmakers in red states are losing ground; for example, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) has seen her numbers decline for months. Democrats in Indiana and Missouri are also losing popularity, making it more likely that Republicans could unseat the incumbents.

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In states that aren't so deeply Republican, like Florida and Arizona, Democrats have better odds. But because November's Senate map favors the GOP, there's simply insufficient blue or purple state races for Democrats to make up for losses in red states.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver says it's hard to find any one reason for the Democrats' slump: It could be the recent battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, or it could be President Trump's endorsement of Republicans. Instead of merely winning some toss-up races, Democrats would now need to win several long-shot seats to have a chance at flipping the Senate.

See more predictions about the midterms at FiveThirtyEight, and read more about the fairly certain Republican majority here at The Week.