New Florida poll shows growing leads for Democrats Andrew Gillum, Sen. Bill Nelson


A CNN/SSRS poll of Florida's Senate and gubernatorial races released Sunday had some good news for Democrats that CNN says "could be an outlier" or "an indicator of renewed Democratic enthusiasm." In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, opened up a 12-point lead among likely voters over former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), 54 percent to 42 percent. Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) has a smaller 5-point lead over Gov. Rick Scott (R), 50 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's margin of error.
The Democrats, especially Gillum, are being buoyed by lopsided advantages among women, younger voters, and non-white voters. The Republicans have a wide lead on the issue of the economy and the Democrats dominate on the issue of health care. Gillum and Scott are seen getting a boost from their responses to Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle.
As CNN political analyst Mark Preston notes in the video below, the races are likely tighter than this poll suggests — according to the RealClearPolitics average, Gillum leads DeSantis by 3.7 percentage points, thanks largely to the boost from this CNN poll, and Nelson leads Scott by 1.3 points. FiveThirtyEight rates the Gillum-DeSantis race a "likely Democratic" pickup. Several reputable polls have registered greater Democratic enthusiasm.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
SRSS conducted the CNN poll Oct. 16-20 on landlines and cellphones, contacting 1,012 adults, including 872 registered voters and 759 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.9 percentage points and for likely voters, ±4.2 points. "The Democratic advantages in the poll were similar across multiple versions of a likely voter model, including those driven more by interest in the campaign and those which placed stronger emphasis on past voting behavior," CNN notes.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
How will the new tax deductions on auto loans work?
the explainer Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced a tax deduction on auto loan interest — but eligibility for the tax break is limited
-
Is Trump actually going to prosecute Obama for 'treason'?
Today's Big Question Or is this just a distraction from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal?
-
5 best movie sequels of all time
The Week Recommends The second time is only sometimes as good as the first
-
Trump executive order targets homeless
Speed Read It will now be easier for states and cities to remove homeless people from the streets
-
Columbia pays $200M to settle with White House
Speed Read The Trump administration accused the school of failing to protect its Jewish students amid pro-Palestinian protests
-
Florida judge and DOJ make Epstein trouble for Trump
Speed Read The Trump administration's request to release grand jury transcripts from the Epstein investigation was denied
-
Trump attacks Obama as Epstein furor mounts
Speed Read The Trump administration accused the Obama administration of 'treasonous' behavior during the 2016 election
-
Trump administration releases MLK files
Speed Read Newly released documents on the 1968 assassination of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. did not hold any new revelations, King historians said
-
Japan's prime minister feels pressure after election losses
Speed Read Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to remain in office
-
President diagnosed with 'chronic venous insufficiency'
Speed Read The vein disorder has given Trump swollen ankles and visible bruising on his hands
-
'Bawdy' Trump letter supercharges Epstein scandal
Speed Read The Wall Street Journal published details of Trump's alleged birthday letter to Epstein