This Trump-supporting district just might vote out its Trump-supporting congresswoman

Midterm analysis has often suggested that whether a state or district supported President Trump in 2016 can predict whether it will go red in 2018. But two neighboring races in central New York might turn that assumption on its head.

Trump won New York's 22nd District by 16 points in 2016, and a poll shows he still has the area's approval. But the area's Trump-supporting Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) almost saw an upset that year, and looks even more likely to lose to State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi (D) in 2018. Meanwhile, the 24th District next door is undergoing the opposite story, The Washington Post points out. Trump lost the district by four points, but it still seems overwhelmingly on track to re-elect GOP incumbent Rep. John Katko this year.

There are a few reasons why the 22nd District, which encompasses rural areas east of Syracuse, is so politically complicated. Tenney has made several political missteps, including suggesting Democrats are more likely to be mass shooters, the Post points out. Brindisi has treaded a middle ground, telling the Post he'll "try to find areas that I can work with the president."

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In the 24th District, Katko is known for bipartisanship. His propensity for breaking with Republicans and Trump earned him an endorsement from The New York Times in 2016, while Balter has led a progressive campaign with quite a bit more Trump-bashing.

Brindisi and Tenney are essentially tied in recent polls; FiveThirtyEight gives Brindisi a slightly better chance of winning. But in the 24th District, polls give Katko a 14-point lead. This all goes to show "how much individual candidate quality still matters even in a nationalized political environment," the Post writes. Dive deeper into these congressional races at The Washington Post.