Now that the Golden Globe nominations have arrived, certain films' Oscar hopes are looking better than ever, while others seem all but dead.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association's picks for Best Picture don't always line up with the Academy's. But it's almost always the case that the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture is nominated in one of the two top categories at the Golden Globes in January. Since 2000, that has been true every year except one: 2006, when Crash won Best Picture despite not being nominated at the Globes.
With that in mind, it looks like First Man may have to kiss its Best Picture hopes goodbye, as Damien Chazelle's Neil Armstrong biopic was shut out of the Best Picture - Drama category after bombing at the box office in October. That's also true of Widows, another box office bomb that didn't receive a single Globe nomination.
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Sasha Stone from Awards Daily points out that the Golden Globes' director field is often indicative of the Oscars' Best Picture category, with The Shape of Water's Guillermo del Toro earning that prize in 2018. The films nominated for best director this year are A Star Is Born, Roma, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, and Vice. Notably, First Man and Widows didn't make it into this category, nor did Green Book, despite earning five nominations total.
Meanwhile, the producers behind Black Panther and Vice should be feeling a lot better about their Oscar chances. The former film picked up a Best Picture - Drama nomination amid widespread speculation that it will be the first Marvel film to make it into the equivalent category at the Oscars, while the Dick Cheney biopic picked up six nominations, giving it some serious momentum as the race to the Oscars continues.
