Why Biden's general election lead is likely narrower than national polls suggest


Former Vice President Joe Biden has a consistent lead over President Trump when it comes to 2020 national polls. But they aren't the best way of predicting what'll actually happen in November.
In nearly every 2020 general election poll taken so far, Biden has come out on top, ending up with a six percentage point lead over Trump on average. But national polls fail to take the nuances of the electoral college into account, and once they're factored in, Biden's lead is a lot narrower than it seems, Nate Cohn lays out for The New York Times.
When it comes to turning the tides from the 2016 election, Biden has attracted white voters with a college degree, as polling demographics show a similar or greater percentage back him as did Hillary Clinton. But Biden has so far failed among the demographics he needs to win over most: white voters without college degrees. They largely switched from voting for former President Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, and haven't shown signs of going blue again, Cohn explains.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Biden does have an "expected" advantage among non-white voters, Cohn writes. But Trump "appears to retain his relative advantage in the disproportionately white working-class battleground states that decided the 2016 presidential election," Cohn continues, and "it raises the possibility that Democrats could win the most votes and lose the White House for the third time in six presidential elections." Read more at The New York Times.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Kathryn is a graduate of Syracuse University, with degrees in magazine journalism and information technology, along with hours to earn another degree after working at SU's independent paper The Daily Orange. She's currently recovering from a horse addiction while living in New York City, and likes to share her extremely dry sense of humor on Twitter.
-
Judges order release of 2 high-profile migrants
Speed Read Kilmar Ábrego García is back in the US and Mahmoud Khalil is allowed to go home — for now
-
US assessing bomb damage to Iran nuclear sites
Speed Read Trump claims this weekend's US bombing obliterated Tehran's nuclear program, while JD Vance insists the US is 'not at war with Iran'
-
'Retailers have a role to play, too'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Trump's LA deployment in limbo after court rulings
Speed Read Judge Breyer ruled that Trump's National Guard deployment to Los Angeles was an 'illegal' overreach. But a federal appellate court halted the ruling.
-
Marines, National Guard in LA can detain Americans
speed read The troops have been authorized to detain anyone who interferes with immigration raids
-
Trump vows 'very big force' against parade protesters
Speed Read The parade, which will shut down much of the capital, will celebrate the US Army's 250th anniversary and Trump's 79th birthday
-
Smithsonian asserts its autonomy from Trump
speed read The DC institution defied Trump's firing of National Portrait Gallery Director Kim Sajet
-
Trump sends Marines to LA, backs Newsom arrest
speed read California Gov. Gavin Newsom is filing lawsuits in response to Trump's escalation of the federal response to ICE protests