Pandemic modelers expect loosening restrictions to lead to coronavirus case increase in coming weeks
As some states in the U.S. begin to reopen parts of their economies, scientists are anticipating a growth in coronavirus cases in those areas over the next few weeks.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Director Christopher Murray told CBS' Margaret Brennan on Sunday that his model, which the White House has favored during the pandemic, anticipates a jump in cases in states where his team noticed a large increase in mobility among the population in recent days.
Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University who has also created a pandemic model, similarly expects loosening restrictions to lead to an increase in transmission, though he thinks the data won't really show up until later in the month.
Shaman did include some caveats, however, noting that models aren't really making predictions themselves. Instead, they're testing out a range of outcomes. There's really no telling, he said, how exactly rolling back lockdown measures will affect people's actual behavior, so there's a chance the worst case scenario won't come to fruition.