this is rough
Quinnipiac University's Wednesday poll gives former Vice President Joe Biden his best chances yet of winning the 2020 presidential election.
Voters back Biden over President Trump 52 percent to 37 percent, up from 49 percent to 41 percent from a month ago, the national poll shows. And while things can drastically change in the next 16 weeks, "this is a very unpleasant real-time look" at Trump's probable future, Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy says.
A movement of independents to Biden's side is key to his new gains. They back the former vice president 51 percent to 34 percent, as opposed to a 43 percent to 40 percent split in Biden's favor last month. Meanwhile Trump's approval rating tanked six points from June, down to just 36 percent this month. Approval of Trump's handling of the economy has almost reversed, from 52 percent approval an 45 percent disapproval in June to 44 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval in July. Voters narrowly say they now believe Biden will handle the economy better than Trump.
Past polls have typically given Trump an advantage in one way or another, or revealed a group of voters he could potentially turn the tides with. But this time, "there is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president," Malloy said.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,273 registered voters from July 9–13 via cell phone and landline, with a 2.8 percent margin of error.