A "wave of polling" from after the Democratic and Republican conventions crashed down on political obsessives Wednesday, Steve Kornacki said on MSNBC, and it shows that the race between President Trump and Vice President Joe Biden hasn't really changed much. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Biden ahead by 7.2 percentage points Wednesday night, versus 7.4 points a month ago. But "Trump showed in 2016 he could lose the popular vote, win the Electoral College," Kornacki said, and some significant swing state polls also came out Wednesday.
A Monmouth University poll showed Biden with a 3-point edge in Pennsylvania, he noted, and a Fox News poll showed Trump losing by significant margins in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona. Trump won all four of those states in 2016.
In Arizona, which Trump won by half a percentage point, Biden leads by 9 points in the Fox News poll, 49 percent to 40 percent. Biden has an 8-point edge over Trump in Wisconsin, a state he won by about 23,000 votes. And in North Carolina, which gave Trump a 4-point win in 2016, Biden is now ahead by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The polls "include results among likely voters for the first time this cycle," as well as third-party candidates when applicable, Fox News said, and running mates were included in the questions. "These differences mean no apples-to-apples comparison to past survey results."
"Biden's advantage comes from strong support among women and suburban voters," Fox News adds. "Moreover, suburban women in all three states trust Biden over Trump to handle coronavirus and policing/criminal justice." Trump's strength is among white voters without college degrees and rural voters. The Washington Post's David Weigel dug out one number that suggests Trump's "law and order" message isn't selling in the suburbs.
The Fox News poll was conducted by phone Aug. 29 to Sept. 1 under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Co. (R), reaching 772 likely voters in Arizona, 722 in North Carolina, and 801 in Wisconsin. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points.
-
Political cartoons for December 7Cartoons Sunday’s political cartoons include the Trump-tanic, AI Santa, and the search for a moderate Republican
-
Trump’s poll collapse: can he stop the slide?Talking Point President who promised to ease cost-of-living has found that US economic woes can’t be solved ‘via executive fiat’
-
Codeword: December 7, 2025The daily codeword puzzle from The Week
-
Trump tightens restrictions for work visasSpeed Read The length of work permits for asylum seekers and refugees has been shortened from five years to 18 months
-
Supreme Court revives Texas GOP gerrymanderSpeed Read Texas Republicans can use the congressional map they approved in August at President Donald Trump’s behest
-
Boat strike footage rattles some lawmakersSpeed Read ‘Disturbing’ footage of the Sept. 2 attack on an alleged drug-trafficking boat also shows the second strike that killed two survivors who were clinging to the wreckage
-
Trump boosts gas cars in fuel economy rollbackspeed read Watering down fuel efficiency standards is another blow to former President Biden’s effort to boost electric vehicles
-
Hegseth’s Signal chat put troops in peril, probe findsSpeed Read The defense secretary risked the lives of military personnel and violated Pentagon rules, says new report
-
Trump pardons Texas Democratic congressmanspeed read Rep. Henry Cuellar was charged with accepting foreign bribes tied to Azerbaijan and Mexico
-
GOP wins tight House race in red Tennessee districtSpeed Read Republicans maintained their advantage in the House
-
Trump targets ‘garbage’ Somalis ahead of ICE raidsSpeed Read The Department of Homeland Security will launch an immigration operation targeting Somali immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area
