Republicans are getting very nervous about the polls. Democrats are, too.
"President Donald Trump is running out of time to recover from a series of self-inflicted setbacks that have rattled his base of support and triggered alarm among Republicans who fear the White House is on the verge of being lost to Democrat Joe Biden," The Associated Press reports. "The one-two punch of Trump's coronavirus diagnosis and his widely panned debate performance also has Republicans worried they could lose control of the Senate."
A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday showed Biden winning by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 54 percent to 42 percent, outside the ± 4-point margin of error. RealClearPolitics' national polling average has Biden up 9.8 points (51.9 to 42.1 percent) and the FiveThirtyEight average recorded Biden leading by 10.4 points (52.2 to 41.9 percent). Some key swing states are a little bit tighter, but FiveThirtyEight also has Biden at 86 in 100 odds to win the Electoral College.
Optimists in Trump's inner circle note Trump's unique ability to command attention, argue that the polls are undercounting Trump voters, and point to Trump's come-from-behind victory in 2016. "If we believe public media polls, then we would be talking about Hillary Clinton's re-election right now," Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told AP.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"This year's campaign, other Republicans worry, may instead resemble 1980 or 2008: a close race until, at the end, it decidedly wasn't," AP reports. "Some Trump allies say their best bet is to hope that the results look close election night, before some of the mail-in ballots are counted, allowing Trump to declare victory and have the results thrown to the courts."
"He's in trouble, there's no question," former George W. Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer told AP. "By every traditional measuring stick, this looks like a Biden landslide." On Monday, Biden is campaigning in Ohio, a state Trump won easily in 2016. But, of course, nothing has been very conventional this year — or for the previous four years. And Democrats, habitually nervous, are not taking this for granted. "While the state of the race looks promising," AP reports, "Democrats know that three weeks add up to an eternity in the age of Trump."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Could smaller cars bring down vehicle prices?Today’s Big Question Trump seems to think so, but experts aren’t so sure
-
2025’s most notable new albumsThe Week Recommends These were some of the finest releases of the past year
-
Trump aims to take down ‘global mothership’ of climate scienceIN THE SPOTLIGHT By moving to dismantle Colorado’s National Center for Atmospheric Research, the White House says it is targeting ‘climate alarmism’
-
US offers Ukraine NATO-like security pact, with caveatsSpeed Read The Trump administration has offered Ukraine security guarantees similar to those it would receive from NATO
-
Hong Kong court convicts democracy advocate LaiSpeed Read Former Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai was convicted in a landmark national security trial
-
Australia weighs new gun laws after antisemitic attackSpeed Read A father and son opened fire on Jewish families at Sydney’s Bondi Beach, killing at least 15
-
How Bulgaria’s government fell amid mass protestsThe Explainer The country’s prime minister resigned as part of the fallout
-
Benin thwarts coup attemptSpeed Read President Patrice Talon condemned an attempted coup that was foiled by the West African country’s army
-
Femicide: Italy’s newest crimeThe Explainer Landmark law to criminalise murder of a woman as an ‘act of hatred’ or ‘subjugation’ but critics say Italy is still deeply patriarchal
-
Brazil’s Bolsonaro behind bars after appeals run outSpeed Read He will serve 27 years in prison
-
Americans traveling abroad face renewed criticism in the Trump eraThe Explainer Some of Trump’s behavior has Americans being questioned
