Biden enters final week of the 2020 election with a 12-point lead over Trump, CNN poll finds

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden enters the final week of the 2020 election with a lead of 12 percentage points over President Trump, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday. In the poll, 54 percent of likely voters are backing Biden while 42 percent favor Trump. The CNN polls is better for Biden than the national averages from RealClearPolitics, 7.5 points (51.1 percent to 43.6 percent), and FiveThirtyEight, where Biden's 9-point lead (51.8 percent to 42.9 percent) is paired with 88 in 100 odds of winning the Electoral College.

Trump trailed by 16 points in CNN's last national poll, so this is an improvement, but the race has been remarkably steady. "Biden has held a lead in every CNN poll on the matchup since 2019, and he has held a statistically significant advantage in every high-quality national poll since the spring," CNN reports. "All of the data point to an election that is a referendum on an unpopular president, and a sizable share of both candidates' supporters are making their decisions based on their feelings about Trump," whose approval rating sits at 42 percent. CNN broke down some of the big demographic splits on air.

CNN's poll wasn't the only one national survey released Wednesday, "and although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest," Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight. Biden appears to be losing a tiny bit of ground in post-debate national polls but gaining in state polls, and he's doing better in higher-quality polls like CNN's than in lower quality ones.

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SSRS conducted the CNN poll Oct. 23-26 among 1,005 U.S. adults reached by phone, including 886 likely voters. The poll or likely voters has a margin of sampling error of ± 3.8 percentage points.