Speed Reads

2020 autopsy

Why Democrats may have lost significant votes from nonwhite conservatives

In the latest 2020 election autopsy, David Shor, a veteran of the 2012 Obama campaign who now serves as the head of data science at the progressive nonprofit OpenLabs, broke down for New York why he thinks former President Donald Trump again exceeded polling expectations in the presidential race.

Shor's analysis shows Democrats lost a significant amount of nonwhite voters, which itself is not a revelation. But he provided more context, explaining that "roughly the same proportion" of Black, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. Traditionally, though, among those three groups, only white voters were polarized at the ballot box. Around 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans, Shor said, but Democrats have generally won the support of nonwhite conservatives overwhelmingly regardless of their personal political ideology, suggesting that, say, economic issues were a more significant factor.

This year, though, Shor hinted that Democrats may have taken things too far with certain "ideologically charged" issues like the "defund the police" campaign. OpenLabs and its partner organizations, Shor said, have done "extensive" post-election surveys and found that Hillary Clinton voters with "conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues."

Shor went on to express his belief that as college-educated "white liberals," whom he says are more ideologically inclined, make up a larger share of the Democratic electorate, they'll continue to push the party further to the left, which could alienate nonwhite conservative Democrats. Read the full interview at New York. Tim O'Donnell