Republicans are expected to gain seats in redrawn 2022 congressional maps, but Democrats could be worse off


U.S. Census data released Monday will shift political power in Congress, reapportioning two House seats to Texas and one each to Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, Colorado, and Montana — and stripping a seat from California (for the first time ever), New York (barely!), Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia. Florida, Texas, and Arizona — each controlled entirely by Republicans — had been expecting to pick up an additional seat.
"On balance, I think this reapportionment offers a small boost for Republicans, but the bigger boost is likely to come from how Republicans draw these seats in Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia," the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman tells Axios. "Reapportionment itself means little compared to the redistricting fights to come." It won't exactly be a level playing field.
"Republicans control the redistricting process in far more states than do Democrats, because of GOP dominance in down-ballot elections," The New York Times reports. "Democrats, meanwhile, have shifted redistricting decisions in states where they have controlled the government — such as California, Colorado, and Virginia — to independent commissions intended to create fair maps."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"The good news for Democrats: They have more control over the process than they did in 2010, the last time the lines were drawn," Wasserman's colleague Amy Walters tells PBS NewsHour. "The bad news for Democrats, the good news for Republicans, is that Republicans still control more than twice as many congressional district lines." And Oregon, controlled by Democrats, will probably add a GOP seat under a power-sharing deal with the Republican minority.
In Texas, where the population gains came from Hispanic and Asian residents and out-of-staters moving to Houston, Austin, Dallas, and other Democrat-leaning urban centers, the GOP legislature will make both new congressional districts Republican, Wasserman predicts. In fact, Republicans "could conceivably pick up all five seats they need" to take control of the House from drawing favorable districts in just Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, he adds. The estimates will change, "but right now, Republicans might expect to gain between zero and eight House seats via map changes."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Will 2027 be the year of the AI apocalypse?
A 'scary and vivid' new forecast predicts that artificial superintelligence is on the horizon A 'scary and vivid' new forecast predicts that artificial superintelligence is on the horizon
-
Sudoku medium: June 15, 2025
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
-
Sudoku hard: June 15, 2025
The Week's daily hard sudoku puzzle
-
Israel strikes Iran, killing military and nuclear chiefs
Speed Read Israeli officials said the attack was a 'preemptive' strike on Iran's nuclear program
-
Israel deports Thunberg after seizing Gaza aid boat
speed read The Swedish activist was delivering food and medical aid to Palestine, highlighting the growing humanitarian crisis there
-
Colombian senator shot on streets of Bogotá
speed read Miguel Uribe Turbay, who has announced his candidacy for next year's presidential election, was shot at a rally
-
Trump says Putin vowed retaliation for Kyiv strike
speed read The Russian president intends to respond to Ukraine's weekend drone strikes on Moscow's warplanes
-
Dutch government falls over immigration policy
speed read The government collapsed after anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders quit the right-wing coalition
-
South Korea elects liberal Lee as president
speed read Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, was elected president following months of political instability in the wake of Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment
-
Nationalist wins tight Polish presidential election
speed read Karol Nawrocki beat Rafal Trzaskowski in Poland's presidential runoff election
-
Ukraine hits Russia's bomber fleet in stealth drone attack
speed read The operation, which destroyed dozens of warplanes, is the 'biggest blow of the war against Moscow's long-range bomber fleet'