The targeting of Iranian missiles at the Diego Garcia UK-US military base on Friday has set alarm bells ringing in Europe. Diego Garcia is more than 2,500 miles from Iran, and if a missile from Tehran can reach there, it could also reach Paris, Berlin or even London.
One of the missiles “fell short of its target” and the other was shot down, said Defence Secretary John Healey. But “the launch, however unsuccessful”, has “fuelled fears” about the range of Iran’s ballistic missile programme, said the BBC’s defence correspondent Jonathan Beale.
What did the commentators say? Israel had warned that Iran was developing weapons capable of travelling 2,500 miles, “which pose a danger to dozens of countries in Europe, Asia and Africa,” the Israel Defence Forces said on social media. “We have been saying it: the Iranian terrorist regime poses a global threat.”
It’s “conceivable” that an Iranian rocket “could reach London”, Sidharth Kaushal, of the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told the BBC’s Beale. But “so what?” We’re talking about “a small number” of conventional missiles and they are “quite inaccurate at very long ranges”. The risk to London is “pretty low”, research analyst Decker Eveleth of the CNA Corporation said to Beale. A missile could travel the distance, but it wouldn’t be “particularly aim-able”. It would also be spotted quickly. Using a network of satellites and powerful radars, the US Space Force can track the trajectory of “any missile fired across the globe”.
The UK government is “not aware of any assessment at all” that Iran is “even trying to target Europe, let alone that they could if they tried”, said Communities Secretary Steve Reed on the BBC’s “Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg”. And “even if they did, we have the necessary military capability” to defend ourselves. “The UK is not going to be dragged into this war.”
What next? Iran would be unlikely to single out the UK for a missile attack, according to the European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies. More likely would be “precision strikes on Nato logistics hubs, and economic disruption” through attacks on liquefied natural gas terminals in Italy, Greece and Romania.
“Nato does have what it takes to defend alliance territory, to defend our one billion inhabitants,” said Colonel Martin O’Donnell, spokesperson for Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. Europeans “should rest easy at night”.
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