Warming temperatures from climate change will likely lead to high levels of physical inactivity in the future, which could have significant public health implications. Heat leads to dehydration, exhaustion and overall inhospitable conditions. Regions with fewer air conditioning and cooling facilities will see the highest reduction in activity, but, without intervention, more places will be affected.
Rising temperatures are “projected to increase the prevalence of physical inactivity, translating into additional premature deaths and productivity losses”, said a study published in The Lancet Global Health. It analysed data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022 to create a model for future physical activity globally. The results showed that by 2050 “each additional month with an average temperature above 27.8°C (82°F) would increase physical inactivity by 1.5 percentage points globally and by 1.85 percentage points in low- and middle-income countries”, said a release about the study.
With this reduction in physical activity, there would be a “predicted 0.47-0.70 million additional premature deaths annually and $2.4-3.68 billion (£1.79-2.75 billion) in productivity losses”, added the release. The effects were mostly concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, and “some hot spot countries closer to the equator show estimated increases in physical inactivity of more than 4 percentage points by 2050”, said The Washington Post. On the other hand, high-income countries would have no discernible difference in physical activity levels because they tend to have better infrastructure to combat heat.
“The link between physical inactivity and chronic diseases is so strong that any compromise to achieving regular exercise” will “pose broad public health risks,” Jonathan Patz, the chair of health and the environment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told The Washington Post. Given the evidence, prioritising the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and building cooling infrastructure will be necessary for maintaining and improving public health.
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