Experts warn that flu season, which typically runs from October to May in the U.S., is expected to be worse than usual this year due to a new subvariant of the virus called H3N2 subclade K. This version is not reflected in the flu vaccine, which will likely lead to an increase in cases and hospitalizations. The subvariant can cause similar symptoms to other flu viruses, including a sore throat, runny nose, muscle aches and fever.
‘Rapidly spreading’ Subclade K first appeared in June, four months after the makeup of this year’s flu shots had already been decided. The subvariant likely emerged while “circulating in the Southern Hemisphere,” where it “picked up seven new mutations,” said Forbes. Australia has had the “worst flu for seven years,” said Dr. Hilary Jones to The Independent. “What tends to happen there in their winter tends to follow here.”
There has already been an increase in flu hospitalizations in Canada and the U.K., as flu season got off to an early start. There’s limited data in the U.S. regarding cases of subclade K, largely due to the government shutdown. Even now that the government has reopened, the “hollowing out” of the CDC through layoffs could continue to delay data collection, Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said to NBC News.
‘Very bad season’ Because of its various mutations, the H3N2 strain that’s in the flu vaccine this year “may not match this subclade K very well,” said Forbes. As a result, this could be a “very bad season” for the flu, said Jones to the Independent.
An earlier flu season with a new subvariant could lead to higher infection rates and more cases resulting in hospitalization. This could “overwhelm clinics, emergency rooms and hospitals, impeding the care of other health conditions,” said Forbes. Other respiratory diseases, including Covid-19, are also circulating.
‘Make your own way’ Despite the vaccine’s reduced effectiveness, it remains one of the best ways to protect yourself against the virus. Generally, the flu shot does not prevent infection but rather reduces its severity. Without proper CDC reporting on the flu, “things are in disarray,” said Forbes. That means “you may have to make your own way with influenza H3N2 subclade K.”
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