World Cup qualifying: are Brazil in danger of missing out?

While Europe prepares for a round of meaningless friendlies and Euro 2016 play-offs this weekend, Argentina and Brazil will meet in Buenos Aires as the two South American giants look to kick start their qualification campaigns for the 2018 World Cup.

Neither side have begun well, and after two games both are outside the top four places that earn automatic qualification for the tournament in Russia. Brazil lie fifth, with one win (against Venezuela) and one defeat (to Chile), while injury-hit Argentina have fared even worse, losing to Ecuador and drawing 0-0 with Paraguay.

The road to Russia is a long one – there are ten teams in the South America Conmebol qualification league and each will play 18 games – but the problems faced by both Argentina and Brazil means "there will be an unexpected sense of anxiety about Thursday's meeting in El Monumental", says Jonathan Wilson in The Guardian.

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Of the two, Brazil have more to worry about, he believes, as the 2014 tournament hosts are still smarting from that tournament, which ended in disgrace as they were humiliated 7-1 by Germany in the semi-finals.

At last year's tournament Brazil were, says Wilson, "arrogant, cynical and overly physical, immersed in the cult of Neymar, gripped by an overwhelming sense of entitlement that blinded them to their inadequacies until it was too late".

And what is a real cause for concern is that since then little has changed. Luiz Felipe Scolario was replaced as manager by Dunga, "another dinosaur", who presided over a "shambolic" Copa America in which Brazil were beaten in the group stages and knocked out in the quarter finals.

So is there a chance that the unthinkable could happen and Brazil could fail to make it to Russia? "It is still a distant possibility but, given how awful the side have been at their last two major tournaments and given how they have started qualifying for Russia 2018, it is not as preposterous a scenario as it would once have seemed," says Wilson.

South American football expert Tim Vickery, writing for ESPN, is also unimpressed by Brazil, who will at least be able to welcome Neymar back from suspension against Argentina. They "lack the capacity to elaborate much in the midfield" and are "unable" to do much more than play on the break.

With Argentina shorn of the talents of Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero and Javier Mascherano the home side may play it safe. That combined with "their uncertain starts in the opening two rounds, both sides might be happy with a draw", says Vickery. And that would leave both sides even further off the qualification pace.