Disarming Hezbollah: Lebanon's risky mission

Lebanon must choose now: disarm Hezbollah, "or watch the slow, irreversible erosion of the state", said Hani Hazaimeh in Arab News (Riyadh). For decades, the Iran-backed Shia militia has been both part of Lebanese politics and a violent, disruptive force that "operates beyond government authority", wielding "enough influence to veto national decisions at will".

Before last year's war with Israel, it was stronger than the Lebanese army – boasting up to 50,000 active fighters and 200,000 rockets. But the war left Hezbollah severely weakened and reeling from the assassination of its long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and many other senior figures in Israeli air strikes. The US has since piled on the pressure to bring Hezbollah's remaining weapons and troops under government control – and, in early August, Lebanon's cabinet took the historic step of approving that plan, promising disarmament by the end of the year in exchange for an Israeli pullback and millions of dollars in reconstruction aid.

It was the right decision. Hezbollah poses as Lebanon's protector; but the truth is that it invites conflict with Israel. Hezbollah's weapons "no longer protect Lebanon – they protect Hezbollah's ability to dictate Lebanon's future". Hezbollah's new chief, Naim Qassem, has flatly rejected disarmament, accusing the government of handing the country to an "insatiable Israeli aggressor". But really he ought to be asking for "forgiveness for dragging Lebanon into a senseless war", said Anthony Samrani in L'Orient-Le Jour (Beirut).

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The day after the 7 October Hamas attack, Hezbollah joined in, firing rockets into Israel. The blowback was devastating. Israel humiliated the militia with an extraordinary act of sabotage – planting booby-trapped pagers among Hezbollah fighters that injured thousands – then invaded Lebanon. More than 3,900 Lebanese died and a million were forced from their homes.

And that was just the group's most recent escapade, said Ali Hussein in Ya Libnan (Beirut). In 2013, Hezbollah joined the Syrian war to prop up dictator Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran. The resulting flood of Syrian refugees "strained our economy and infrastructure to breaking point". Then, in 2020, thousands of tons of ammonium nitrate that the militia was storing for Syria's barrel bombs exploded at Beirut's port, killing nearly 220 people. Hezbollah's alliance with Iran has "brought Lebanon nothing but war, division and misery".

Hezbollah was supposed to disarm when the Lebanese civil war ended in 1990, said Niv Shaiovich in Yedioth Ahronoth (Tel Aviv), but the idea was "considered taboo" because Iran would not allow it. The ground has shifted following last year's war, during which the militia, according to Israel, lost an estimated 70% of its manpower and firepower. Lebanese leaders can finally stand up to Iran. When the head of Iran's National Security Council, Ali Larijani, came to Beirut last week, the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, told him bluntly that the era of foreign interference is over, and that Lebanon would not tolerate any rearming of Hezbollah.

Anyone who expects Hezbollah to capitulate is "deluded", said Kim Ghattas in the FT. "This is not the IRA, fighting a local, territorial war of resistance against an occupier." Hezbollah answers to Iran – and with most of its leadership assassinated, it has now fallen "under tight Iranian control". Tehran is itself "on the back foot", following its own 12-day war with Israel; it sees even a diminished Hezbollah as "a vital tool" in any confrontation with the Israelis.

The Lebanese army is seizing weapons and dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure in the south, but is showing no signs of marching into its southern Beirut heartlands. Earlier this month, said Marc Saikali in Ici Beyrouth, Hezbollah's leader gave "what amounted to a declaration of war" – warning that if government forces try to take away its weapons, "there will be no more life left in Lebanon". Freeing our country from Hezbollah may well take another civil war.