Deus Ex Arpaio
Why nutty Republicans are a godsend for Democrats
There was a time not too long ago in American politics when in order to win a party's nomination for pretty much any office, you had to be approved by the party's powerbrokers. Gathered in smoke-filled rooms, they'd decide which connected guy should be on the ballot, filtering out those who hadn't paid their dues or might embarrass the party come election day.
These days, any idiot can run. And given the right circumstances, they might just win. You can probably think of one important example.
So as Democrats hope to ride a wave election back into power in Washington, they may be asking themselves: Should we be rooting for Republicans to nominate the craziest, most extreme candidates they can? Or would that pose too great a risk if one of them should win? Let's examine the issue, taking the example of Joe Arpaio, who is now running for Senate in Arizona to fill the seat of the retiring Jeff Flake.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Arpaio, you'll remember, is not residing behind bars because President Trump pardoned him for a crime he had been convicted of, involving defying a court order on racial profiling. But that was just about the least-bad thing Arpaio did in his years as Maricopa County sheriff; if you like there's a good roundup here of his reign of terror, which included copious racial discrimination, horrific mistreatment of prisoners (an estimated 160 of whom died in his jails), targeting his political enemies for harassment, and in one bizarre case, staging a fake assassination attempt and framing an innocent man for the fictional crime.
As popular as Arpaio might be on Fox News, it's fair to say that the Republican Party would rather he not be their nominee. But from the Democrats' perspective, there are two ways to look at the race. On one hand, Arpaio's extremism might make him the easiest candidate to beat, particularly in a state that is closely divided but still leans slightly to the right (Trump won there in 2016 by 3.5 points). On the other hand, what if he actually won?
I'd argue that Arpaio getting the nomination is the best outcome for Democrats, for the same reasons that can be applied to races elsewhere. First, what is the real downside? For all the prestige of the office, senators don't have a lot of independent power. Unlike mayors, governors, or presidents, they don't have a bureaucracy and a budget at their disposal to indulge their nefarious impulses. What damage would a Senator Arpaio be able to do? He'd give a lot of angry speeches, but when it came time to cast votes, he'd be pretty much like any other Republican. And one way or another, his candidacy will bring national attention, making the GOP seem even more extreme and irresponsible than it already is, particularly to young voters and minorities.
This was the same issue that arose with Roy Moore in Alabama, even before his interest in teenage girls came to light. In that case, Republicans nominated not only their most extreme candidate, but the one who had a scandal waiting to be revealed, the result of which was that Democrats now hold a Senate seat from Alabama.
Even if Moore's case is unique, we've seen this pattern many times in recent years: Republican primary voters gripped in a Tea Party fervor nominate the nuttiest candidate in the race, who then proceeds to lose what would have been a winnable election. There was Todd Akin, who in the red state of Missouri torpedoed his 2012 bid by telling an interviewer that rape and incest exceptions for abortion bans weren't all that important because "if it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try and shut that whole thing down." There was Richard Mourdock of Indiana, who blew his own Senate candidacy two months later on the same subject, saying that if a woman is raped and gets pregnant "it is something that God intended to happen." There was Sharron Angle, who lost a 2010 race to Harry Reid in Nevada after saying all kinds of controversial things, including that "if this Congress keeps going the way it is, people are really looking toward those Second Amendment remedies." And then there's my favorite, Christine O'Donnell of Delaware, who not only inflated her resume but was forced to air an ad that began with the words, "I'm not a witch." For Democrats, these candidates' missteps were like deus ex machinas that appeared out of nowhere to rescue them from electoral defeat.
Now, the fact that those candidates never made it to the Senate is no guarantee that other extremists won't in the future, of course. But in 2018, Republicans could find themselves saddled with even more nutbars than they have in the past. That's because this year is looking so dire for the GOP that any sensible Republican contemplating a run for higher office would decide to sit the election out and wait for a more favorable environment. As Politico recently noted, not only have none of the many Senate Democrats up for re-election in 2018 who are also contemplating a presidential run gained a serious Republican challenger, "Republican leaders have failed to secure their top-choice candidate in eight of the 10 Senate races in states that Trump won in 2016."
The people willing to take the risk are more likely to be the ideologues, the crusaders, and the unhinged. The more controversy they generate, the more an already excited Democratic electorate will become eager to turn out on election day, making the party's goal of taking back the Senate that much easier to achieve. So if you're a Democrat looking with horror at the candidacy of someone like Joe Arpaio, worry not. He's probably the best thing for your party.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Paul Waldman is a senior writer with The American Prospect magazine and a blogger for The Washington Post. His writing has appeared in dozens of newspapers, magazines, and web sites, and he is the author or co-author of four books on media and politics.
-
Today's political cartoons - April 14, 2024
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - Trump Derangement Syndrome, social media dangers, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 rambunctious cartoons about the House speakership standoff
Cartoons Artists take on Mike Johnson's night terrors, the Speaker's chair, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The Week Unwrapped: Ultrarunning, menswear and a meaty row
Podcast Is the "Hardest Geezer" a high-endurance trendsetter? Will Ted Baker survive? And what's the beef with lab-grown meat?
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published