Two national polls released Tuesday show that Donald Trump has stormed back to significantly cut in on Hillary Clinton's lead, perhaps causing some anxiety among voters who are #WithHer. CNN/ORC found the presidential rivals at a dead heat, with Trump ahead 45 percent to Clinton's 43 percent nationally, and a massive Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll showed Trump with an edge in a couple battleground states, and close behind in others.
At what point is it time for Clinton to start worrying? Nate Silver broke it down at FiveThirtyEight:
What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?My first question would be whether the race has settled into a 4-point Clinton lead, as the polls have it now, or is continuing to trend toward Trump. If I'm still ahead by 4 points or more at the time of the first debate on Sept. 26, I'll feel reasonably good about my position: A Trump comeback would be toward the outer edges of how much trailing candidates have historically been able to move the polls with the debates. If the race gets much closer, though, my list of concerns gets a lot longer. It would include geopolitical events that could work in Trump's favor, third-party candidates who seem to be taking more votes from me than from Trump, and the tendency for incumbent candidates (since Clinton is a quasi-incumbent) to lose ground in the polls after the first debate. [FiveThirtyEight]
If Silver's opinion is any good, Trump is having a lot more sleepless nights than Clinton right now — read what the Republican nominee ought to be concerned about over at FiveThirtyEight.
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