One history professor at American University has developed a presidential prediction system that has correctly forecasted the last eight presidential election winners. And this year, Professor Allan Lichtman said all signs are pointing to a Donald Trump victory.
Lichtman's system, which he outlined in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, identifies the predicting factors of an election as: party mandate, incumbency, whether there's a "serious contest for the incumbent party nomination," the short-term and long-term economies, the strength of any third-party candidates, social unrest, scandal, foreign and military successes and failures, policy changes, and the charisma of both the incumbent and the challenger. Polls aren't taken into consideration, except to rate the strength of a third-party candidate.
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Lichtman also noted that Trump has made this election the "most difficult election to assess since 1984," and that America has really never had a candidate quite like Trump before. "This would also suggest ... the possibility this election could go either way," Lichtman said. "Nobody should be complacent. No matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote."
You can read the full explanation of Lichtman's prediction system over at The Independent.
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