Is Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill about to lose?

Just one day before the midterms, two-term Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) and her Republican opponent are neck-and-neck in the polls.

A poll from NBC News published Monday shows McCaskill's Republican challenger, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, polling within the margin of error. McCaskill leads among likely voters with 50 percent support, while Hawley captures 47 percent support. This puts McCaskill in a better position than in September, when the same poll showed the two candidates tied, but not nearly in a good enough position for her campaign to feel comfortable heading into Election Day.

Other recent polls in the Missouri Senate race have shown the two candidates tied, while several have shown Hawley in the lead. The Cook Political Report classifies this race as one of five toss-ups, while FiveThirtyEight gives McCaskill the advantage, projecting she has a 58 percent chance of defeating Hawley. They expect an extremely tight race, though, forecasting that McCaskill will only win by about one percentage point.

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McCaskill was elected in 2006 and is considered one of the more moderate Democrats in the Senate. In fact, her campaign in recent days has been pushing to distance her from other "crazy Democrats." She represents a state that President Trump won with 56 percent of the vote in 2016, and where Trump's approval rating is higher than it is nationwide: 51 percent in this NBC poll. Trump on Monday morning tweeted in support of Hawley, saying that McCaskill will "always vote against us and the Great State of Missouri!"

The NBC News poll was conducted by speaking to 1,016 adults over the phone from Oct. 30 through Nov. 1. The margin of error among likely voters is 5.2 percentage points.