Boris ‘on brink of a Brexit deal’ - what happens next?

Boris Johnson is on the brink of securing a last-minute Brexit deal, according to reports this morning.

The Guardian reports that the prime minister has made “major concessions” to the EU over the Irish border - namely agreeing in principle to a customs border in the Irish Sea.

The Times says negotiators “worked through the night to secure a deal” with “officials scrambling to prepare a draft treaty text”.

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Sky News reports that Johnson is currently involved in “11th-hour haggling”, in the hope that the draft text of the agreement can be published today. The PM hopes to have the text agreed before EU leaders convene in Brussels for a summit tomorrow.

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, is expected to announce today whether the proposal will be ready for EU leaders to consider. If not, they will have to wait until next week, which raises the prospect of Johnson having to ask for another extension to Article 50.

If EU leaders do approve a draft deal this week, Johnson would then have to sell the deal to MPs.

Arlene Foster, leader of the Northern Irish DUP, has already hinted that her party could be a stumbling block, saying: “It would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required.”

There have also been mixed signals from Tory MPs. Owen Paterson told The Sun some of the proposals floated were “absurd”, but David Davis said: “We will probably vote for it because it's as close as we're going to get to what we promised the electorate.”

The BBC reports that the chair of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, Steve Baker, said he was “optimistic” that a “tolerable deal” could be reached.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons and a former ERG chair, told LBC: “I think the votes are there now for a deal.”

MPs would get the chance to discuss and vote on the text at this weekend’s emergency Saturday sitting of Parliament - the first in 37 years, if it goes ahead.

The outcome of such a vote could rest on the details of Johnson’s concessions to the EU over his proposed alternative to the Irish backstop - the measure aimed at preventing a hard border on the island of Ireland.

His plan for a customs border in the sea was dismissed by former PM Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.

If MPs do not back a draft deal – or if no text can be agreed with EU leaders in the first place – Johnson will be legally required to ask the EU for another delay to Brexit under the Benn Act.

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