What difference will the 'historic' UK-Germany treaty make?

Keir Starmer's Brexit reset took in another European superpower this week as the UK and Germany signed their first treaty since they fought each other in the Second World War.

Signed in London's Victoria & Albert Museum, in homage to the historic relationship, the Treaty on Friendship and Bilateral Cooperation highlights the need for greater collaboration in the face of rising threats, particularly from Russia.

The so-called Kensington Treaty shows Germany and the UK are "really on the way to a new chapter", said Friedrich Merz, who was visiting London for the first time since becoming German chancellor. Keir Starmer described it as a "historic document" that "measures just how close our countries are" at a time of "real volatility in the world".

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What did the commentators say?

It wasn't quite "le bromance" of Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Britain last week, said The Guardian's John Crace. But this was "equally significant": a "coming of age" and "a relationship of equals with no place for tabloid stereotypes".

"Flying around are a lot of big claims" about a "ground-breaking" agreement, said the BBC. But the 23-page treaty broadly lives up to the "hyperbole".

Some of its contents aren't new: the promise to defend each other from attack comes under Nato commitments; Germany had already agreed to change its laws to "make it easier to seize boats" used by people-smugglers; the EU had already agreed to open more countries' e-gates to British travellers.

But the treaty also has "practical consequences": more cooperation in defence, including joint military drills; strengthened trade; exports of jointly produced weapons to third countries; cooperation on science; and "joint green energy projects in the North Sea".

More importantly, the treaty sets up annual meetings of ministers to coordinate policies, and a meeting every two years between the countries' leaders. "That sounds like dry stuff", but "it sends important signals" about "shared priorities and shared intent".

The treaty also commits Germany and the UK to deeper cooperation with France, said Politico, "formalising the so-called 'triangle alliance' for the first time".

The three are already partners through Nato and the G7, but Nato is a "sprawling" bureaucracy representing 32 countries that often disagree, said The New York Times. Berlin, London and Paris are "eager for a smaller, more nimble group" to respond to the "shift in the relationship" between Europe and the US.

Analysts say they are creating a kind of "break glass in case of emergency" system of planning and action, ready to react to an "increasingly aggressive Russia". If Donald Trump "continues to back away from American commitments on the continent, having that option might become necessary".

"This is literally all the kids coming together and trying to figure out what to do about the drunk dad," said Minna Alander, from the Center for European Policy Analysis.

"Rattled" by Trump's "cavalier treatment of Ukraine", Germany is "seeking a second nuclear blanket", said The Times. Britain and France are "deepening nuclear cooperation", and Merz "wants to join the party". Despite its stagnant economy, Germany is "on a defence spending spree"; some of that cash could well be heading towards British arms industries, given their expertise in nuclear.

Germany is once again on a path to building Europe's "most formidable army", said The Telegraph's David Blair. But I wonder if Starmer has really "grasped the full significance" of that? Britain's "privileged influence in Nato" has been based on having Europe's biggest defence budget. But last year, Germany overtook Britain on defence spending, committing 20% more than the UK. Its economy might be stagnant, but it's 40% bigger than Britain's; the spending gap "will almost certainly grow wider."

This will "inevitably lead to a reduction" of Britain's sway within Nato. Despite all the "bonhomie", don't forget Starmer is "conceding influence" to Merz.

What next?

"We will enable visa-free school group travel between the UK and Germany" by the end of 2025, a senior German official told The Guardian.

The treaty also includes an agreement for a new direct train link between London and Berlin. Next week, Macron will visit Merz in Berlin, and the so-called "coalition of the willing" that Britain, France and Germany lead to support Ukraine against Russia will soon get a formal headquarters in Paris.

The so-called E3 alliance of France, Germany and the UK "has the potential to bridge Nato and EU initiatives", and tie European security together, said Chatham House. But to do so it "needs to branch out to Poland and other European partners" across Nato. "It cannot by itself cover the gaps between the EU and Nato that were created by Brexit."