Tariffs: Is Trump winning his trade war?

President Trump is getting results from his "Hulkamania" approach to international trade, said John Authers in Bloomberg. At his golf course in Scotland this week, Trump sealed what he modestly called "the greatest deal of all time" with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Under that agreement, most EU imports to the U.S. will face a 15% tariff—down from Trump's threatened 30%— while the bloc will impose zero tariffs on many American exports. The EU is just the latest trading partner to cave to Trump's bullying rather than punch back with retaliatory tariffs: Japan made a one-sided 15% deal last week, while Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have agreed to tariffs of about 20%. Trump's "hard-power" tactics are a welcome change of pace, said Walter Russell Mead in The Wall Street Journal. For decades, U.S. presidents "sought to cajole American allies" to open their markets more to American goods—"and got nowhere." But Trump bet that access to the world's biggest economy and security guarantees were "so valuable" that countries would "pay a much higher price than his predecessors ever got." He bet right.

But it's not clear exactly what's in Trump's deals, most of which "have yet to be committed to paper," said Daniel Desrochers in Politico. His administration has touted an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and invest an extra $600 billion in America by 2028, and a pledge by Japan to invest $550 billion. But a senior EU official said its investment number was based on the "intentions" of private companies, over which the bloc has no control. And Japanese officials have said their country will invest a maximum of $11 billion, with most of the rest made up of loans. These conflicting details are "raising doubts about how much Trump has really succeeded in lowering foreign barriers or drawing in foreign investment for U.S. businesses."

Sure, the details are "vague," said Nicole Russell in USA Today. But if the final investments "happen at anywhere close to the levels promised," they'll usher in a "golden age" for American workers. That influx of cash should drive "job growth in agriculture, energy, and other vital sectors." The success of Trump's tariffs was "undeniable" even before his EU triumph, said Daniel McCarthy in the New York Post. What's "more remarkable" is how they've defied "the very laws of economics—or rather, the law as laid down by economists," who predicted an inflationary disaster. Instead, the U.S. economy has motored along, with consumer prices barely ticking up and tariffs adding more than $27 billion to federal coffers last month alone.

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America will eventually pay the price for tariffs, said Eric Boehm in Reason. The 15% toll on Japanese car imports, for example, is supposed to boost domestic auto manufacturing. But it will only encourage companies like Toyota—which has spent billions of dollars on U.S. factories—to build elsewhere. With a Trump-imposed 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and a 25% tax on imported car parts, it will be cheaper for Toyota "to import finished cars from Japan." And don't count out inflation just yet, said Ana Swanson in The New York Times. Consumers have largely been spared price hikes so far because companies stockpiled goods before tariffs kicked in and then swallowed the costs of import taxes. But economic research suggests that will change over the next six to 18 months, as stockpiles disappear and firms pass on tariff fees for appliances, autos, toys, and more. Only then will we know if "the president's plan for global trade" is an "economic success."